source |Tech Planetwriting |Wang Linsource |Figure insect creativityZhang Xiaofeng, who runs a mobile phone store in Inner Mongolia, did not welcome the expected summer. In the past, summer was one of the best-selling seasons for mobile phone brands (followed by winter vacation), with Q2 selling over 100 million phones throughout the summer at its peak

source |Tech Planet

writing |Wang Lin

source |Figure insect creativity

Zhang Xiaofeng, who runs a mobile phone store in Inner Mongolia, did not welcome the expected summer. In the past, summer was one of the best-selling seasons for mobile phone brands (followed by winter vacation), with Q2 selling over 100 million phones throughout the summer at its peak. Mobile phone manufacturers are spending hundreds of millions on promotions, and it is not uncommon for prospective college students and college students to rush into phone stores to purchase or replace a new phone for themselves.

Tech Planet660

One easily overlooked signal is that the decline of smartphones had already begun to take shape before the pandemic. According to Counterpointresearch data, the shipment volume of smartphones in China in 2017 was 491 million units. In the following five years, sales have been declining except for a slight rebound in 2021. In 2022, the shipment volume of smartphones in China was 264 million units, a decrease of over 46% compared to 2017. Out of 1.4 billion people, less than 20% were buying smartphones, almost halving.

No mobile phone brand can stand alone in this decline. In order to meet consumer demand, mobile phone manufacturers have already set out for super large memory. The upcoming iPhone 15 may start with 256GB, and the era of small memory is gone forever.

The smartphone market has been experiencing negative year-on-year growth for 10 consecutive months, and frontline dealers and phone owners are the first to feel the chill.

In the era of mass consumption, a mobile phone earns tens of yuan in profit

Wu Bing felt very distressed. It was originally the peak season for mobile phone sales in July, but his store's sales were not as good as June. The reason is that the subsidy for summer vacation is not as large as imagined.

This situation has been confirmed by other mobile phone store owners, and it is 600 yuan cheaper than machines at similar prices last year. This year, there may only be 400 yuan left. "This year, platform subsidies are decreasing". A senior Rice noodles (List of Xiaomi products fan) said that, except for some models, the promotion intensity this summer was basically the same as 618.

A mobile phone industry insider said that mobile phone retail stores are currently experiencing significant losses, especially in city and county stores. Generally, the investment for opening a store is around 200000 yuan, and brand image manufacturers can help you manage it. The investment mainly includes rent, labor, and working capital to stock up.

500600200Tech Planet

This is the era of traffic, "said a mobile phone store owner. But low profits and high sales have not become a reality, and the recession is visible to the naked eye. The Counterpoint Research report shows that in the first quarter of 2023, the global smartphone market shipped 280 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 14%, and the decline has expanded to double digits.

The Chinese market has not been able to stand alone. According to IDC data, in the first quarter of 2023, the shipment volume of China's smartphone market was about 65.44 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 11.8%.

2015-20174520030040010015Tech Planet

But now, the situation is taking a sharp turn for the worse. The above-mentioned mobile phone retail store owner stated that during the off-season, sometimes only 30 units are sold in a month, and when the situation is good, only 60 units are sold. His expectation is to sell 10 units a day, both online and offline, but this goal is rarely achieved this year.

More importantly, as mobile phone prices become more transparent, capillary like retailers are unable to raise prices as before, exacerbating the decline in their profit levels.

In pursuit of higher cost-effectiveness, many people have turned their attention to second-hand mobile phones. According to IDC's estimation, global second-hand smartphone shipments, including official refurbished smartphones, will reach 282.6 million units in 2022, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%, and this growth will continue. It is expected to reach 413.3 million units by 2026, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of even 10.3% from 2021 to 2026.

Mid to high end crazy introversion

The number of new aircraft released was once considered as the Weather vane of the industry.

According to public data statistics, a total of 54 new phones were released by 13 mobile phone brands in the first half of 2021, and most of them completed the external release and market sales of the new products planned for the first half of the year in the first five months. In 2022, 13 mobile phone manufacturers released a total of 51 new products, which is basically the same as in 2021.

Tech Planet3433%

Mobile phone manufacturers are targeting the mid to high end market. Many of the new models in the past two years have high configurations and low prices, "said a mobile phone industry insider. Like the 2K screen of the K60 and the fast charging technology in the RealmeGTNeo5, these configurations that were originally only available on flagship aircraft are now also available on sub flagship aircraft.

The more intense competition is manifested in processors. The smartphone determines which position it belongs to based on the "processor" it is equipped with, including low, medium, and high-end. The most typical example is the Snapdragon 7Gen2 processor released in the first half of this year, which has an overall performance performance between the Tianji 8200 and Tianji 9000, almost at the level of the border. According to past classification, the Tianji 9000 belongs to the top-level class of ship aircraft.

Red rice note12t is the first mobile phone equipped with Snapdragon 7+gen2. In the actual measurement of red rice note12t, the performance of Snapdragon 7+gen2 directly catches up with that of Realme GTNeo5 equipped with Snapdragon 8+reduced frequency version and Tianji 9000 plus ACE2V, and AnTuTu has scored 980000 in the evaluation.

Mobile phone manufacturers are constantly expanding their memory. The multiple mobile phones released in the first half of this year started with 256G storage. A mobile retail store owner said that most people no longer have enough 128GB to use, and even many people do not have the habit of cleaning garbage, resulting in an increasing amount of memory. Even the upcoming release of iPhone 15 in the second half of this year is likely to start with 256GB of memory.

618Tech Planet

Take the inventory test and face a tough battle

Consumers find it difficult to find a reason to replace a new phone, as feature phones from three to five years ago can meet the vast majority of daily and work needs. The stock market is saturated with no strong new demand, and the user replacement cycle has reached 36 months.

Guo Mingxuan, a well-known Apple analyst at Tianfeng International, said on the social platform that almost all Almost all brands face the risk of high inventory due to weak demand. Taking Xiaomi as an example, its financial report stated that the overall inventory amount in the first quarter of 2023 was the lowest level in nearly nine quarters.

In the financial report of the first quarter of 2023, List of Xiaomi products disclosed that its overall inventory amount was 42.6 billion yuan, mainly including Xiaomi mobile phones and IoT products. Mobile phones account for about 70% of the revenue of List of Xiaomi products, which means that the inventory of Xiaomi mobile phones has exceeded 30 billion yuan.

According to the average price of 1151.6 yuan disclosed by the official, the inventory of List of Xiaomi products mobile phones has reached 26 million, which is enough to show the previous inventory pressure of Xiaomi.

2022Tech Planet40%

But even so, mobile phone manufacturers still have unsold inventory of phones. The optimistic view is that mobile phone inventory will see a turning point around the middle of the year and a recovery in the second half of the year.

Mobile phone manufacturers are betting their future on foldable screens. According to IDC data, in 2022, the annual shipment volume of folding screen products in China reached nearly 3.3 million units, a year-on-year increase of 118%, which was higher than expected.

Compared with 2021, the domestic folding screen market has exploded. Samsung, Huawei, Glory, Xiaomi, OPPO and other mainstream mobile phone manufacturers have successively released folding screen phones. The most powerful OPPO even took the lead in releasing vertical folding products. The price of 5999 yuan made it the first in China's folding screen market in the first quarter of this year.

Part of the reason for the rapid growth is due to its small base, with an annual sales volume of 3.3 million accounting for only 1.25% of the overall proportion of smartphones. In order to increase sales, the best-selling P50Pocket in China in 2022 has lowered its price to 5888 yuan this year.

The emergence of foldable screens has effectively solved the contradiction between the demand for large screens and portability of mobile terminals and the size of the body. However, at present, foldable screen phones are still in a state of being afraid of bumps and bumps, and screen damage and repair prices are extremely high. However, for struggling manufacturers, foldable screens are already one of the few areas with potential to be explored today.

Apart from betting on the future, what is more important now is that sales have stagnated, and under the pressure of inventory, mobile phone manufacturers are facing a tough battle.

writing

Disclaimer: The content of this article is sourced from the internet. The copyright of the text, images, and other materials belongs to the original author. The platform reprints the materials for the purpose of conveying more information. The content of the article is for reference and learning only, and should not be used for commercial purposes. If it infringes on your legitimate rights and interests, please contact us promptly and we will handle it as soon as possible! We respect copyright and are committed to protecting it. Thank you for sharing.(Email:[email protected])