How many people are there in China by 2050? The United Nations has made predictions, and the answer is unimaginable

Article | Guo YuzheEditor | DaewoofollowIt is always said that our country has a large population, and people may not have this understanding in their daily lives because everyone is in a dispersed state and moves within their comfort zone.And during holidays, I truly realized how many people there are in China

Article | Guo Yuzhe

Editor | Daewoo

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It is always said that our country has a large population, and people may not have this understanding in their daily lives because everyone is in a dispersed state and moves within their comfort zone.

And during holidays, I truly realized how many people there are in China. Watching the constant flow of cars on the highway and the bustling crowds of people in various tourist attractions, I deeply realized the populous country.

However, in recent years, the new population has been continuously decreasing. So how many people are there in China by 2050?

The low birth rate has caused great trouble for the country and has also made various experts worry. How can we make people more willing to have children? This is really a big challenge.

The United Nations has made bold predictions about our country's population, and the answer is truly unimaginable.

At the beginning of the founding of the country, China did not have clear restrictions on the population, so we found that there were many brothers and sisters in that era, and some families even had seven or eight children, which was very common.

At that time, raising children was a very simple thing, it was all about free range, just having food to eat. In those years, China's Population growth was positive, and the population increased rapidly.

Later, the country realized that excessive population would increase consumption, damage the ecological environment, and be detrimental to social harmony and stability, so it later introduced the family planning policy.

Under the influence of this policy, each family was forced to have only one child, which slowed down the growth rate of China's population.

Although there are restrictions on family planning, people's concept of getting married and having children is still very firm and relatively traditional, so China's marriage and fertility rates have always been positive.

However, this trend was completely reversed in 2022. The Population growth in some regions of China was negative, and more and more people were unwilling to have children.

The United Nations has predicted the population of our country based on its current situation. The year 2050 may seem very distant, but in fact, time flies quickly and will arrive in the blink of an eye.

According to United Nations estimates, by that year, our country will only have a remaining population of 1.1 billion. The total population of our country is currently about 1.4 billion, which means that the population will decrease by 300 million by 2050.

This number is quite large, and the total population of some countries may not reach 300 million.

Does someone say that having a large population has any benefits? Isn't the lack of medical and educational resources in China due to a large population?

A large population means that it consumes more resources, resulting in more serious environmental pollution problems. Therefore, a smaller population should be a good thing for our country.

With fewer people, the pressure on students to take the college entrance examination is reduced, and it will also be easier for graduates to find jobs.

Looking at the United States, its land area is similar to that of China, and its grain production is also on par with that of China. Its GDP is also equivalent to that of China. The United States has only a population of over 400 million, so its per capita GDP is much higher than mine and its economy is more developed than ours.

Is this really the case? The problem is that China's population structure is unreasonable, with too many elderly people and too few young laborers.

If the fertility rate is not raised again, by 2050, the majority of the 1.1 billion population may be elderly, and the country's pension pressure will greatly increase, possibly even the distribution of retirement benefits will become a problem.

It is precisely because China is aware of the potential negative impact of population reduction in the future that it has been encouraging people to have children, but the effect is not significant.

When the second child policy was first introduced, China's birth rate did indeed rise, mainly because the willingness to have children after the 1970s was relatively high.

As the post-70s grew older, the post-80s and post-90s were no longer willing to have children, so the birth rate fell again.

Seeing that the second child policy is useless and the country has introduced a third child policy, it is even more meaningless.

In 2021, the three child policy was implemented, and the number of new born people in that year was only 10.62 million, down 44% from 18.83 million in 2016, and the Population growth in that year was only 0.3%. It can be seen that the introduction of the three child policy did not play a positive role.

Some regions provide subsidies for families with three children, such as Shenyang providing a monthly subsidy of 500 yuan until the age of three.

In this way, a total of 18000 yuan can be earned over three years, which is a drop in the bucket for giving birth and raising children.

Going to hospitals for prenatal examinations is becoming increasingly expensive, and children attending kindergarten is becoming more and more expensive. The monthly childcare fee is around 1000 yuan, which is even more expensive in big cities.

There are indeed some cheap public kindergartens, but children from ordinary families are not allowed to enter and still need to find connections.The cost of kindergarten increases every year, but jobs are becoming increasingly difficult to find. Who dares to have more children like this?

Rather than relying on population for national development, it is better to seek a path of development in a state of negative population growth.

Firstly, we need to vigorously develop artificial intelligence, which can enable more fields to achieve intelligence and reduce dependence on population.

Secondly, we need to change the economic development model. In the past, China did rely on Demographic dividend for development. Many enterprises were Sweatshop, and they earned income by extending working hours and reducing wages.

And now this development model is obviously no longer suitable for the current social situation, so both enterprises and the country should seize the time to make changes, otherwise it will be eliminated.

Negative population growth is a necessary stage in the process of national development. Faced with this situation, China needs to be fully prepared in order to better meet challenges, overcome difficulties, and achieve faster development.

What do you want to say about this? Welcome to leave your thoughts in the comments section!

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