Only half of the products have achieved the lowest price throughout the year! I have found the reason for the lack of enthusiasm during this year's Double Eleven

This year's "Double Eleven" is so desolate.The Baidu index shows that the popularity of "Double Eleven" has decreased year by year

This year's "Double Eleven" is so desolate.

The Baidu index shows that the popularity of "Double Eleven" has decreased year by year. Its search volume peaked in 2017 and has since decreased year by year.

This year can be called a "freezing point", with peak search volume decreasing by 60% compared to the same period last year, and there is a significant gap from the previous peak period of attention.

The same goes for Weibo topic discussions.

In 2019, the average duration of topics related to "Double Eleven" on Weibo's hot search list reached 464 minutes, which is nearly 8 hours.

This year, it has plummeted to half, with an average duration of less than 3 hours.

Is Double Eleven no longer available for sale

Why is the "Double Eleven" becoming increasingly desolate? We captured more than 2800 comments related to Weibo topics and found the following reasons.

Reason 1: Desensitization to shopping festivals

Throughout the year, discounts are being promoted to desensitize consumers to the "Double Eleven" holiday.

In the captured Weibo discussions, words related to desensitization such as "uninteresting" (457 times), "every year" (103 times), and "every day" (89 times) were repeatedly mentioned. This indicates that in the face of the "Double Eleven", consumers' mentality is becoming increasingly negative and they are more susceptible to impulsive consumption behavior influenced by platform marketing.

The most typical example is the netizen "Sparrow Flies to the Flagpole", who said, "Nowadays, every day is an activity. There are anniversaries, pet festivals, snack festivals, and only unexpected festivals that cannot be achieved without them (platforms)

The reporter conducted statistics on the discount arrangements on Tmall platform in 2023 and found that almost two-thirds of the days were included in various shopping festivals. Apart from the most typical "Double Eleven" and "618" events, various seasonal exchanges and holiday sales are prevalent in daily life.

Moreover, in addition to the full promotion, there are also many discounts for specific vertical categories during specific time periods. For example, in March, the Tmall platform had almost daily promotions. In addition to the 3.8 New Week, there are also promotions targeting individual categories such as food, sports, digital appliances, home decoration, beauty, and clothing. The promotional activities include half price for the second item, official discounts, and a 30% discount for every 300 items.

Apart from the widespread discounts,Live sales have also to some extent reduced the attractiveness of the "Double Eleven".

Netizen "Huasanmi" said, "I watch live streaming every day and there is also a discount. I bought everything I should, and it's no different from Double Eleven

From a data perspective, live streaming sales have indeed attracted more and more people.

According to the data from the "Dianshubao" e-commerce database,The live streaming market is becoming larger and larger, with an increasing number of participants.

This year, the live streaming e-commerce market is expected to reach 4565.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 30.44%. Compared to 2017, the market size has expanded by 232.47 times. The user base also reached 540 million this year, a year-on-year increase of 14.16%.

It is expected that the per capita consumption of consumers on e-commerce platforms will reach 8660 yuan this year, a year-on-year increase of 17.03%, almost 29 times that of 2018.

The reason why the early "Double Eleven" had a lot of discussion was mostly due to its scarcity, and when discounts and promotions became routine, consumers no longer looked forward to it.As Mr. Huang, a netizen, said, "If you miss Double Eleven, you can also buy Double Twelve. You can also buy New Year's Day and 618. There are various 520 items on weekdays, and even activities on Qingming Festival. There is no shortage of this shopping festival

Reason 2: Not cost-effective and troublesome

This year, major e-commerce platforms are focusing on "low prices".

JD has set the theme of the Double 11 promotion as "really cheap", while Tmall has set it as the "lowest price on the entire network". Moreover, compared to the previous two years, the preferential policies for the "Double Eleven" holiday this year have been significantly streamlined, without the need to stay up late to grab coupons or many vague rules.

But consumers are not satisfied.

Among the more than 3000 comments captured,30% of netizens are still complaining about the current preferential measuresKeywords such as "trouble" (432 times), "don't want" (181 times), "routine" (92 times), and "complexity" (53 times) appeared in the discussion.

They complain that "it's too troublesome to make up for a full reduction", feel that "there are too many tricks to calculate lazily", or complain that "it's too troublesome to have to stay in the live broadcast room and pay the final deposit in batches".

Netizen "Luluu" complained, "Who still remembers that the Double Eleven was originally half price for formal attire? It was both simple and cost-effective, and now there are not many discounts for the thousand story package

So, is the platform really achieving the "lowest price" as they say?

The reporter selected 225 "Double 11" hot selling products from 24 product categories on the three major comprehensive e-commerce platforms of Tmall, JD.com, and Pinduoduo, and compared the actual price of the products with the historical lowest price through the historical price query platform "Slowly Buy".

Data shows that there are indeed many products with prices lower than historical lows. Among them, Tmall has the highest proportion of low-priced products (i.e. the current price is lower than the previous historical lowest price), reaching 53%.

From the sample of 225 best-selling products, the discount intensity for luggage and furniture equipment products is relatively high. Among the three platforms, the prices of the "Double Eleven" products are lower than or equal to the previous historical lowest prices.

But there are still nearly half of the products left, and the discount is actually limited.

For example, a baby's "fart bowl" with a large sales volume can be found using lazy person price comparison data. The current price is 25 yuan, while in August this year, this product only costs 4.5 yuan.

Reason 3: Spending moneyLack of confidence

Finally, among the comments and comments captured, 'no money' is the most vocal. Almost a quarter of the content is related to this.

Is Double Eleven no longer available for sale8000

Actually, this answer is not surprising.

From a more macro perspective, according to the latest data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, although the total retail sales of consumer goods in society have shown a continuous recovery trendThere is still a problem of insufficient demand.

Especially for products such as furniture and architectural decoration, due to factors such as the real estate market, the year-on-year growth rate of retail sales for enterprises above the designated size is still negative.

The overall lack of consumer motivation will certainly affect the "Double Eleven". But on the other hand, online consumption is actually considered the eldest son among the dwarves.

From the following two data points:

On the one hand, it is postal and express delivery data.

According to monitoring data from the National Postal Administration, from November 1st to 4th, the cumulative collection volume in China was 2.027 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%, reaching a new historical high.

The daily average revenue collection is also good.

Preliminary calculations show that the daily average revenue from November 1st to 4th was 507 million, compared to only 388 million units last year and 425 million units in 2021, both lower than this year's situation.

On the other hand, it is the recovery of online retail sales.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, as of September this year, the cumulative online retail sales of physical goods reached 9043.5 billion yuan, an increase of 8.9% year-on-year.

Compared to last year's situation, there has been a significant improvement in the growth rate. The growth rate for the same period last year was only 6.1%.

Among them,Consumers are more willing to spend money on food.The increase in "food" products was significant, with a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, while the increase in "use" products was limited, at 8.5%.

Therefore, despite the seemingly desolate "Double Eleven" period, there has been an increase in data on online retail sales of postal and physical goods.

The lack of discussion is not due to consumers' unwillingness to consume, but rather to a greater consideration of "gathering excitement".

In short, in the 15th year of the "Double Eleven" promotion node, how to maintain its attractiveness to consumers is a question that major e-commerce platforms need to consider and rely on the overall environment.

Column Editor in Chief: Zhang Mo

Source: Author: Lian Junxiang, He Shuyao, Jin Tianyi, Lei Guanghan

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