The escalating US tech blockade against China: Hegemonic anxiety or strategic miscalculation?

The escalating US tech blockade against China: Hegemonic anxiety or strategic miscalculation?The US has further tightened its technological restrictions on China, banning the export of advanced AI chips and pressuring allies to strengthen export controls, citing "national security" as the justification. This isn't the first time the US has pressured China's tech sector, but the underlying anxieties and potential strategic miscalculations warrant closer examination

The escalating US tech blockade against China: Hegemonic anxiety or strategic miscalculation?

The US has further tightened its technological restrictions on China, banning the export of advanced AI chips and pressuring allies to strengthen export controls, citing "national security" as the justification. This isn't the first time the US has pressured China's tech sector, but the underlying anxieties and potential strategic miscalculations warrant closer examination. From the Toshiba case to the Huawei ban, the US has long attempted to maintain its technological hegemony through technological blockades. However, the effectiveness, or even the counterproductive nature, of this approach deserves reassessment.

The Decline of US Tech Hegemony and the Anxiety: The "Hunt" from Toshiba to Huawei

US suppression of other nations' technological development is not a recent phenomenon. In the 1980s, the rise of Japan's semiconductor industry, particularly its dominance in DRAM with a market share reaching 80%, challenged US supremacy. Citing "national security," the US accused Toshiba of violating export restrictions to the Soviet Union, imposing severe sanctions that forced Toshiba to divest its chip business and exit the field. The Toshiba incident became a prime example of the US using its national power to suppress competitors, foreshadowing its future technological strategy.

This strategy continues today, targeting China. Beginning in 2020, the US imposed sanctions on Huawei, restricting the export of high-end chips and preventing ASML from selling its most advanced lithography machines to China, attempting a comprehensive blockade to curb China's technological advancement. The root cause of these actions lies in the US's anxiety about its declining technological hegemony. Faced with China's rapid technological rise, the US seeks to maintain its dominant position through various means, but the effectiveness of this approach is increasingly questionable.

China's Technological Rise: Challenges and Opportunities

US apprehension about China's technological development is not unfounded. China's progress in the tech sector in recent years is undeniable. In 2023, China's R&D expenditure reached 3.3 trillion yuan (approximately US$450 billion), representing 2.6% of its GDP. While still lagging behind US investment, China has made significant strides in areas such as electric vehicles, artificial intelligence, and lithium batteries.

In AI, a 2023 UN report showed China filed six times more generative AI patent applications than the US and surpassed the US in high-citation rates for overall AI research, becoming a global leader in AI research. In electric vehicles, China's lithium battery exports accounted for 73.7% of the global market share in 2023, demonstrating its strong technological capabilities and industrial chain advantages.

• These achievements are not accidental but the result of China's continuous increase in R&D investment and its active promotion of technological innovation. However, it's noteworthy that many breakthroughs have been achieved under external pressure. The New York Times commented that the US attempt to slow China's technological progress may instead unleash greater potential, reflecting the resilience and potential of China's technological development.

Limitations of the US Tech War: Fragility of the Ally System and Manufacturing Hollowing-Out

Despite the US's strong measures in the tech war, it faces clear limitations. Firstly, the US overly relies on its ally system. ASML, producer of the world's most advanced lithography machines, is an example. The US used political and economic means to force the Netherlands to restrict exports to China. While effective in the short term, this approach exposes the decline of the US manufacturing base.

During the Cold War, the US leveraged its powerful industrial capacity to maintain its advantage in the technological blockade against the Soviet Union. However, today the US suffers from severe manufacturing hollowing-out, with many key products relying on European and Asian supply chains. The ally system serves as a "weapon" in the US tech war, but also makes its technological hegemony more fragile. Simultaneously, this approach increasingly damages mutual trust between the US and its allies, weakening their willingness to engage in trade with China.

The Alstom case is a prime example. The US, using the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, arrested Alstom executives, ultimately leading to the acquisition of its core business by General Electric. This incident made allies like France realize that the US's so-called "rules" serve its own interests more than principles of fair competition.

China's Counter-Strategies and Future Challenges

Faced with the US tech war, China has adopted proactive counter-strategies. At the policy level, the central government continues to increase support for technological R&D; in 2023, the People's Bank of China established a 500 billion yuan financing mechanism to support technological enterprises in upgrading their equipment. Simultaneously, China is accelerating technological breakthroughs in chips, artificial intelligence, and clean energy, striving to overcome the US technological blockade.

Internationally, China is actively expanding its markets and influence through the Belt and Road Initiative and trade cooperation with Africa, Southeast Asia, and other regions, reducing the risks of sanctions and creating more development opportunities for Chinese companies. For example, the growing reliance of Southeast Asia's new energy market on Chinese companies provides strong support for the global layout of China's electric vehicle industry.

However, challenges remain. The US ally system is still strong, and China's foundation in many key technological areas still needs further strengthening, particularly in high-end chips where the indigenization process faces numerous challenges. Therefore, while maintaining confidence in the future, a clear-headed approach is necessary, avoiding blind optimism.

The escalation of the US tech blockade against China reflects the intensification of geopolitical competition and the anxiety of declining US technological hegemony. This approach is not only unlikely to impede China's technological progress but may instead unleash greater potential and exacerbate tensions in the global technology sector. In the future, technological competition will become even fiercer. China needs to strike a balance between independent innovation and international cooperation to navigate the complex international environment and ultimately achieve technological self-reliance.

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