How long will the highly sought after humanoid robot enter the home? Industry insiders: It may take another 20 to 30 years

For over half a century, there have been various literary and film works written in the future that showcase people's imagination and exploration of humanoid robots entering family life.In 1950, Turing proposed in his open paper "Computers and Intelligence" that machines can interact with the environment like humans, perceive their surroundings, plan, make decisions, and act autonomously, and possess the ability to execute these decisions; The classic science fiction film "Blade Runner 2049" released in 2017 depicts the story of love and murder between the clone K and the bionic robot

For over half a century, there have been various literary and film works written in the future that showcase people's imagination and exploration of humanoid robots entering family life.

In 1950, Turing proposed in his open paper "Computers and Intelligence" that machines can interact with the environment like humans, perceive their surroundings, plan, make decisions, and act autonomously, and possess the ability to execute these decisions; The classic science fiction film "Blade Runner 2049" released in 2017 depicts the story of love and murder between the clone K and the bionic robot.

In the real world, manufacturing humanoid robots is also the ultimate dream of countless engineers. With the rise of artificial intelligence in 2023, humanoid robots will once again become popular in the technology industry.

In July of this year, unicorn Data Robotics Co., Ltd. in the field of intelligent robots in China announced the launch of the robot multimodal large model RobotGPT, and in August, it released a bipedal universal humanoid robot.

Data robot.

At the same time, the humanoid robot "Expedition AI" developed by highly regarded technology self media blogger Zhi Huijun, who was once referred to as Huawei's genius boy by the media, made its debut on August 18th.

Along with its popularity, the controversy between humanoid robot technology and ethics has also attracted people's attention. How long will it take for humanoid robots to enter thousands of households? A practitioner stated in an interview with Pengpai Technology (www.thepaper. cn) that it may take another 20 to 30 years, but it may also be difficult to say.

Why did humanoid robots become popular again? Technological breakthroughs open up market imagination space

In the field of industrial robots, Yang Dong (pseudonym) has clearly felt that in the past two to three months, the enthusiasm for humanoid robots in the domestic market is very high. He believes that the reason for the popularity of humanoid robots is due to a key breakthrough in technology. Previously, the first generation of "internet celebrity" humanoid robot ASIMO (Asimo) became popular from its inception until it announced the termination of its research and development in 2018, mainly due to technological breakthroughs. Stuck in technology or remote control, robots do not have autonomous capabilities. In addition, commercialization cannot be achieved and there are no practical scenarios.

In 2021, Tesla announced the Optimus Optimus Optimus humanoid robot, and in 2023, Boston Dynamics released a humanoid robot, showing people that humanoid robots have strong artificial characteristics.

Tesla Optimus Optimus humanoid robot.

In addition, since the beginning of this year, the popularity of AI models such as chatGPT has greatly reduced the cost of AI applications, making it possible for robots to have a certain degree of intelligence.

In the eyes of Hu Yu, a technology enthusiast and columnist in the field of artificial intelligence, the emergence of ChatGpt has sparked the popularity of humanoid robots, "because this is a key breakthrough in robotics technology and a breakthrough in the ability of automation to intelligence

Hu Yu said that in the past, people used to see automated robots, which could start operating service activities such as brewing coffee by giving instructions to them. However, such robots did not have a certain degree of autonomy, let alone independent decision-making.

The new generation of large models and artificial intelligence technology models have enabled robots to make breakthroughs in scenarios. They can make independent judgments and solve problems independently in different application scenarios, which is a qualitative leap, "said Hu Yu.

The breakthrough in robot joint hardware and the development of AI artificial intelligence have led to a transformation in human-machine communication. People are beginning to believe that in the future, humanoid robots may enter life scenes faster than expected.

(humanoid robots) is a highly anticipated event, which is likely to be a new industry that could disrupt market size and space, "Cao Wei, a partner at Lanchi Venture Capital, told Pengpai Technology.

As an early technology investment institution, Lanchi Venture Capital began paying attention to the robot race track in 2014 and invested in robot projects in the early stages, including Gaoxian Robot, Youai Zhihe, and Lanxin Technology.

Cao Wei believes that the reason behind the popularity of humanoid robots is due to their large imagination and market space.

Musk once proposed a bold idea at a shareholder meeting, "Everyone should have two humanoid robots. In the future, the number of humanoid robots worldwide is expected to reach 10 billion to 20 billion

Cao Wei said that Musk mentioned a very long-term vision. Specifically, it will be a very large market when it comes to vertical areas.

In addition, Cao Wei analyzed that driven by the variable changes in the large model, people have seen the software and hardware of humanoid robots constantly iterating and optimizing, making the possibility and speed of the entire robot landing worth looking forward to.

As an investor, Cao Wei admitted that humanoid robots are currently a promising investment project for them. He believes that in the next two to three years, China's service robots and industrial robots will sweep the world.

The current competition is still only in the laboratory stage

Pengpai Technology has noticed that humanoid robots, which have received high attention from the outside world, are currently accelerating their landing as emerging technological products.

However, many industry interviewees pointed out a common issue during interviews with surging technology, and although the concept of humanoid robots has become popular,However, the technology level of humanoid robots born in the market is still in its early stages, and commercial production has not yet been achieved.

At present, there is no robot on the market that has achieved mass production, and the competition is only in the stage of developing new products in the laboratory and releasing them to the public. "Zhang Yu (pseudonym), a public relations personnel of a leading unicorn robot company in China, told Pengpai Technology.

Zhang Yu candidly stated that,Humanoid robots are the most expensive industry in the field of artificial intelligence, and it may be difficult for the capital market to invest 10 billion yuan in the short term to produce products and technologies

Musk revealed on July 20th that although the demand for production of Tesla's humanoid robot Optimus is considerable, there are still many challenges in its mass production, such as the lack of suppliers to produce the actuators required for Optimus, which must be customized, and this requires a certain period of time.

Cao Wei believes that from the perspective of technical capabilities and reserves, it is possible to achieve mass production domestically, but it requires a certain time cycle. It is already an ideal state for the enterprises we invest in to enter a rapid commercialization stage within 3 to 5 years; it takes at least 10 years to truly form a mass production scale, "Cao Wei said.

Humans always expect humanoid robots to enter every household and serve us meticulously. They have always become the common expectation of capital, technology, and the market as they move towards real-life application scenarios. In the eyes of practitioners, the functions displayed by humanoid robots in the current market are far from the ideal "home nanny".

In Zhang Yu's view, the most difficult aspect of promoting robots to practical application scenarios is in the home setting. Currently, the scenarios where robots are more prone to landing are concentrated in more standardized scenarios, such as factory offices, property management, etc. For example, the first set application scenario for Musk's humanoid robot is in factories and offices, as the environment is relatively fixed and does not undergo significant changes. "Compared to fixed scenarios such as factories and offices, home scenes are the least standardized. The less standardized it is, the higher the requirements for the hardware and software of robots.

Many industry insiders and technical experts interviewed believe that humanoid robots, entering life and fully integrating into society, still have many safety issues that need to be solved urgently.

Cao Wei believes that currently, China cannot be said to have entered the era of humanoid robots, but rather the era of universal robots. Cao Wei stated that the development of robots has gone through the stages of industrial robots, collaborative robots, and general-purpose robots. Universal robots, although not necessarily humanoid, can solve various tasks. And from universal machines to humanoid robots, the universal ability of intermediate robots is a crucial step. In the future, when humanoid robots or general-purpose robots enter people's home life, special attention should be paid to the material aspect. What if a child in the family accidentally falls onto a robot while running and gets injured?

Yang Jian expressed concern from a technical perspective, pointing out that humanoid robots have high requirements for controlling safety circuits, and if the robot is at home, there is no guarantee that any problems will occur. Safety is not only limited to the safety of interacting with humans, but also the ability of humanoid robots to accept external signals and make independent judgments. Safety also needs to be taken seriously

Will the popularity of humanoid robots be influenced by capital and ultimately just a flash in the pan? Can humans wait until humanoid robots enter the scene of life in their lifetime?

Yuan Jianjun stated that excessive pursuit of humanoid robots in the short term is detrimental to the development of the industry, as it is a long-term investment process that takes a long time from inventing prototypes to producing products that can truly integrate into daily life.

From the perspective of technological development, Yang Jian has always maintained a rational attitude towards humanoid robots. He believes that the attitude towards humanoid robots should return to rationality, starting with practicing internal skills and achieving their best in the laboratory before releasing them.

Zhang Yu believes that it may be possible to wait for that day in twenty or thirty years, but it's not easy to say, "As long as a technology company makes this thing (humanoid robot), the entire industry will go up together soon

There will definitely be great humanoid robot companies in China

Several humanoid robot practitioners and investors also pointed out that the development of the humanoid robot industry requires a "scientific ecosystem" suitable for humanoid robots.

Zhang Yu takes Xiaomi as an example to analyze that the CyberOne full size biomimetic humanoid robot developed by Xiaomi is more like a product of the natural evolution of Xiaomi's "technology ecology" and also a spokesperson for Xiaomi's technology ecology.

Since its establishment, Xiaomi has been continuously integrating and evolving a technology system, from smartphones to wearable devices and smart homes, to intelligent manufacturing, smart electric vehicles, and biomimetic robots. The future scenario setting of Xiaomi Robot is mainly in the intelligent manufacturing field of Xiaomi Factory.

Cao Wei believes that the use of humanoid robots and the creation of a scientific ecosystem cannot be separated from government support. Currently, there are very clear policy guidelines and implementation of humanoid robots in China, which is a good start.

Cao Wei once analyzed and pointed out that from the demand side, population aging is a problem that must be faced at present. In recent years, China's population growth has slowed down, and the demographic dividend is not there. In the new situation, artificial intelligence robots can lead humanity to a new level. Especially with the maturity of technology and market education, the types of robots continue to increase and their performance improves, and their application scenarios and scope are further expanding. China has now become the largest robot consumer company.

In addition, from a supply side perspective, the Chinese entrepreneur community has an active community culture. Not only are there many universities with robotics engineering majors, entrepreneurs, and capital, but there is also an upstream and downstream ecosystem, which makes product iteration faster than other countries.

From the perspective of the entire scientific ecosystem, "there will definitely be great humanoid robot companies in China in the future," Cao Wei said.

Pengpai Technology has noticed that many governments in China have successively introduced action plans to promote the development of high-level applications of artificial intelligence.

Beijing, Shenzhen, and Shanghai have successively issued industrial support policies. On May 31st, Shenzhen released the "Action Plan for Accelerating the High Level Application of High Quality Development of Artificial Intelligence in Shenzhen (2023-2024)", proposing to incubate highly intelligent production robots and accelerate the establishment of the Guangdong Provincial Innovation Center for Humanoid Robot Manufacturing Industry. On June 15th, Shanghai issued the "Three Year Action Plan for Promoting High Quality Development of the Manufacturing Industry in Shanghai (2023-2025)", aiming at the forefront of artificial intelligence technology, building a universal big model, developing an industrial ecosystem in vertical fields, building an international algorithm innovation base, and accelerating the innovative development of humanoid robots.

In the eyes of technology enthusiast and artificial intelligence columnist Hu Yu (who requires anonymity or pseudonym processing), this series of favorable policies indicate that China's first tier cities have created vast market space for the development and application of humanoid robots.

Hu Yu uses the metaphor of a tropical rainforest to describe the scientific ecosystem. He believes, "The true scientific ecosystem is a tropical rainforest. Although we cannot predict when the next species will emerge, we always know that there will be species in the rainforest, which is a good scientific ecological environment

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