Smartphones may disappear by 2050, and the next generation of communication methods has taken shape

recentlyNihon Keizai Shimbun reported thatReport forecast released by Mizuho Bank in JapanSmartphones will disappear by 2050According to this reportSmartphones are now available worldwideThe penetration rate is 65%And this numberWill decrease to 60% by 2030By 2050, it will decrease to 0%So, smartphonesMay the future disappear?If it disappears, it may appear againWhat kind of new communication tool?Smartphones enter the "three phase" superposition stageIt has been half a century since the birth of the world's first mobile phone. Over the past half century, with the rapid development of mobile communication technology, mobile phones have increasingly become an indispensable part of human daily life

recently

Nihon Keizai Shimbun reported that

Report forecast released by Mizuho Bank in Japan

Smartphones will disappear by 2050

According to this report

Smartphones are now available worldwide

The penetration rate is 65%

And this number

Will decrease to 60% by 2030

By 2050, it will decrease to 0%

So, smartphones

May the future disappear?

If it disappears, it may appear again

What kind of new communication tool?

Smartphones enter the "three phase" superposition stage

It has been half a century since the birth of the world's first mobile phone. Over the past half century, with the rapid development of mobile communication technology, mobile phones have increasingly become an indispensable part of human daily life. But it should also be noted that the speed of mobile update iteration is astonishing. The popular communication tools of the late 20th and early 21st centuries, such as mobile phones, pagers, PHS, and functional phones, have now become "old objects" and are being shelved by people. Will smartphones also follow suit?

Technically, smartphones are a system integration of a series of technologies such as communication, networking, voice, and imaging. Currently, new generation digital technologies such as generative artificial intelligence, virtual reality, and human-computer interaction have entered a growth period, and their impact on smartphones is deepening. They continue to promote the development of user interfaces towards intelligence, immersion, and three-dimensional direction, and continue to validate future application scenarios through multi technology path exploration. It can be foreseen that under the dual wheel drive of technology and scenario, it is only a matter of time before smartphones are replaced by higher dimensional products.

In addition, in recent years, global consumers have generally extended the replacement cycle, partly due to the improved lifespan of smartphones, and partly because users' expectations for product innovation are also increasing. Focusing on new market expectations, more and more digital technology companies are starting to lay out new tracks, actively cultivating potential users in the future by strengthening technology research and development and application promotion, improving business models and content ecology, reshaping consumption concepts and scenarios, and other means.

The next generation of communication methods has emerged in its embryonic form

The next generation of communication methods has emerged in its embryonic form

01 Presenting a three-dimensional user interface

With the continuous progress of computer vision technology, people are increasingly dissatisfied with two-dimensional information presentation forms such as text, images, and videos, and are pursuing more visual information presentation methods. Under the dual upgrading of technology and demand, the form of information presentation is accelerating from a two-dimensional plane to a three-dimensional space. We anticipate that the next generation of communication tools will present a three-dimensional user interface, enhancing people's sense of presence in online activities such as communication, participation in meetings, and seminars.

02 More integrated into work and life scenarios

With the support of built-in sensors and other devices, the digitization of physical state and behavioral activities has increasingly become a common phenomenon in modern society. Many people's sleep information, travel trajectory, and other information are stored in the form of data on smartphones, and smartphones have become increasingly important tools for storing and analyzing these data. The next generation of communication tools will continue and upgrade this important function, more integrated into people's work and life scenarios, and provide individuals with more in-depth, comprehensive, and intelligent measurement services.

03 More user-friendly operational interaction

Interactivity is a key indicator of the ease of use of terminal devices. From the perspective of the development history of smartphones, the widespread application of interactive technologies such as touch screen, gesture control, voice operation, and facial recognition has driven the rapid development of smartphones towards intelligence, efficiency, and convenience. The next generation of communication tools will continue to maintain this trend, while promoting the full integration of human psychology, habits, behavior and other factors with differentiated scene factors to achieve more humanized operational interaction.

04App is highly integrated and deeply embedded in the system

There are a large number of third-party applications (apps) on smartphones, which not only meet people's social, online shopping, travel, entertainment and other needs, but also bring a series of problems such as frequent updates, difficult to clear memory, and complex management. The next generation of communication tools may effectively solve this problem by highly integrating and deeply embedding the app into the system, with digital people or virtual idols as the unified entry point for the program. Users can open relevant programs according to different scenarios.

The main theme of the development of the new generation of communication equipment is intelligence. With the development of technology, the connection between artificial intelligence (AI) and communication technology is becoming increasingly close. Looking forward to the future, the deep integration of AI and communication technology will bring a series of profound changes to the communication field and may reshape human communication methods.

From the perspective of communication networks, AI based intelligent networks may become an important direction for the development of future communication networks. Self intelligent networks have a high level of intelligence, which can achieve self-awareness, decision-making, and execution of the network, providing users with highly personalized, precise, and secure network services.

From the perspective of terminal devices, personal intelligent assistants have enormous application potential. Currently, personal intelligent assistants have become an important new arena for global mobile phone giants to compete for layout. In the future, personal intelligent assistants will effectively assist users in planning, managing their lives, and handling work, and may become the main channel for users to communicate and connect with the outside world.

I don't know if you still remember

The mood of using a mobile phone for the first time?

Actually, every phone has its own story

And the protagonist of the story

It's me and you

Our youth is gone forever

Then use these phones

Come awaken your and my memories

Column Editor in Chief: Qin Hong Text Editor: Fang Ying Inscription Source: Visual China Image Editor: Zhu Xuan

Source: Author: Chongqing Daily

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