2061: The Coming Peak of Death in China and How to Respond

2061: The Coming Peak of Death in China and How to Respond This is an unprecedented era, a time filled with challenges. In 2023, China's death toll reached a record high of 11

2061: The Coming Peak of Death in China and How to Respond

This is an unprecedented era, a time filled with challenges. In 2023, China's death toll reached a record high of 11.1 million, marking two consecutive years of negative population growth, signaling a new phase in China's population development. Zhang Zhen, a professor at Fudan University's Population Research Institute, predicts through rigorous mathematical analysis that China will experience an unprecedented peak of death in 2061, with annual deaths potentially reaching 19 million.

This prediction is not unfounded. It is rooted in the historical trajectory of China's population development and reflects the immense challenges facing future social development. We need to deeply understand the causes, impact, and coping strategies of this peak of death to better prepare for the future and ensure harmonious and stable social development.

I. The Precursors to the Peak of Death: The Decline of Three Baby Booms

The arrival of the peak of death is not accidental but a natural outcome of China's population development history. After the founding of the People's Republic of China, the country was in dire need of labor to rebuild. In the early 1950s, the first baby boom surged like a spring tide, with an average of 20.77 million new lives entering the world each year between 1950 and 1958. However, the dark shadow of the Great Leap Forward cast a gloom over the land, causing a drastic decline in birth rates. As light returned, the second baby boom arrived like a mighty river, with an average of 25.83 million babies born each year between 1962 and 1975, with individual years seeing a staggering 30 million births!

Following the implementation of the one-child policy, population growth was effectively controlled, but the resilience of life led to a third baby boom, with an average of 22.06 million newborns per year between 1981 and 1997. These three baby booms formed the historical foundation of China's population growth and nurtured the driving force behind its economic takeoff.

However, time is unrelenting, and the protagonists of these three baby booms are gradually entering middle and old age. They were once the backbone of national development, but now face retirement and eldercare issues. More importantly, they will successively pass away in the coming decades, giving rise to the "peak of death" predicted by Fudan University professors.

II. The Implications of the Peak of Death: Number of Deaths, Death Rate, and Natural Population Growth Rate

The arrival of the peak of death is not a singular phenomenon but a composite of multiple factors. It primarily manifests in three ways:

1. Continuous Increase in the Number of Deaths: As the three baby boom cohorts progressively enter old age, the number of deaths will show an upward trend. In 2061, the number of deaths could reach 19 million, significantly exceeding the current figures and placing immense pressure on societal resources.

2. Gradual Rise in the Death Rate: With an ageing population structure, the proportion of elderly people is steadily increasing, leading to a rising death rate. This will pose new challenges to the medical service system, eldercare service system, and social management system.

3. Further Decline in the Natural Population Growth Rate: The natural population growth rate is calculated as the birth rate minus the death rate. The peak of death implies a sustained increase in the death rate while the birth rate continues to decline, resulting in a further decrease in the natural population growth rate, potentially leading to negative growth. This will have profound implications for labor supply, the consumer market, and economic development.

III. The Roots of the Peak of Death: Continuing Decline in Birth Rate and Accelerating Ageing

The arrival of the peak of death is the result of multiple factors acting in unison, with the continuing decline in birth rate and accelerating ageing being the primary causes.

1. Persistent Decline in Birth Rate: In recent years, China's birth rate has steadily declined, with the total fertility rate in 2022 reaching only 1.09, far below the population replacement level. High housing prices, high education costs, and intense work pressure have made many young people reluctant to have children or choose to have fewer. This phenomenon of "having fewer children" directly leads to a decrease in the number of newborns, while the proportion of the elderly population continues to rise, ultimately leading to the peak of death.

2. Accelerating Ageing: As the three baby boom cohorts enter old age, China's ageing process is deepening, and the proportion of elderly people is rapidly increasing. Data shows that by the end of 2022, China's population aged 60 and above reached 280 million, accounting for 19.8% of the total population. What is even more concerning is the rapid rise in the old-age dependency ratio, meaning that each working-age individual needs to bear an increasingly heavy burden of eldercare. This "one child supporting two generations" care model places immense pressure on younger generations, further exacerbating the decline in their desire to have children.

IV. The Challenges of the Peak of Death: Multiple Pressures on Social Development

The arrival of the peak of death is not just a numerical change in population but a profound transformation in social structure and development models, bringing multiple challenges to social development:

1. Pressure on the Eldercare Security System: Accelerating ageing will lead to a substantial increase in pension expenditures, putting enormous pressure on the existing eldercare security system. The government needs to increase fiscal investment and improve the eldercare system to better address the challenges posed by the future ageing society.

2. Pressure on the Medical Service System: The elderly generally have poorer health and higher healthcare needs. The peak of death will exacerbate the shortage of medical resources, demanding a stronger medical service system with improved quality to meet the growing healthcare demands.

3. Pressure on Labor Supply: The declining natural population growth rate will cause a labor shortage, hindering economic development. To address the labor shortage, industries need to be optimized, and labor productivity needs to be enhanced.

4. Pressure on the Social Consumer Market: Population ageing will result in a shrinking consumer market, particularly impacting industries related to young people. It is necessary to adjust the consumption structure, develop consumer products and services targeted at the elderly, and revitalize the consumer market to promote economic development.

5. Pressure on Social Stability: Population ageing can also lead to social stability issues. It is crucial to strengthen the social security system, uphold social fairness and justice to effectively address potential social conflicts.

V. Strategies for Responding to the Peak of Death: A Multifaceted Approach to Overcome the Challenges

In the face of the challenges posed by the peak of death, we cannot afford to be passive. We must prepare for the future and formulate a set of coping strategies. This is not just about the happiness of individual families but also about the harmonious and stable development of society as a whole.

1. Accelerate the Construction of a Palliative Care System: Palliative care provides comfort and dignity to terminally ill patients, alleviating pain, improving quality of life, and providing psychological and emotional support to families. Palliative care is not just medical treatment but a final guardian of human dignity.

Currently, China's palliative care development lags behind, requiring the government to increase investment, establish more palliative care centers, and strengthen public education so that more people understand and accept this form of end-of-life care. Through palliative care, we can reduce the suffering of the elderly, improve their quality of life, and alleviate the financial and psychological burden on families.

2. Enhance the Quality of Funeral Services: Death is an inevitable part of life, and high-quality funeral services are not only a respect for the deceased but also a comfort to the living. We can learn from developed countries, providing diverse funeral services to meet the needs of different individuals, respecting the wishes of the deceased and allowing the living to have more ways to commemorate their loved ones. At the same time, strengthening the regulation of the funeral industry is essential to prevent exorbitant grave prices, luxurious funerals, and other undesirable phenomena, ensuring that everyone can access dignified funeral services.

3. Strengthen Population Policy Guidance: The continuing decline in the birth rate is a major factor driving the peak of death. The government needs to take measures to alleviate the burden of child-rearing and care for new life. Policies like improving housing, providing childcare subsidies, implementing more favorable childcare leave policies, offering more support for working mothers, and creating a more family-friendly social environment can be implemented.

4. Enhance Social Service Levels: Population ageing will place higher demands on the social service system. We need to improve the eldercare service system, medical service system, community service system, and other aspects to better meet the needs of the elderly and improve their quality of life.

5. Strengthen Technological Innovation: Technological innovation can effectively address the challenges of population ageing. For example, developing elderly-friendly products and services, utilizing artificial intelligence to improve efficiency, promoting the development of the eldercare industry, and so on.

VI. Looking Ahead: Embracing Hope While Addressing Challenges

The arrival of the peak

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