C919: China's Global Dream, Why Is It Still Struggling to Break Through?

C919: China's Global Dream, Why Is It Still Struggling to Break Through?On July 22nd, the Farnborough International Airshow kicked off in the UK. As the world's second-largest aviation event after the Paris Air Show, this Farnborough event attracted over 1200 exhibitors from around the globe

C919: China's Global Dream, Why Is It Still Struggling to Break Through?

On July 22nd, the Farnborough International Airshow kicked off in the UK. As the world's second-largest aviation event after the Paris Air Show, this Farnborough event attracted over 1200 exhibitors from around the globe. By the closing ceremony on the 26th, the event saw a total of 75,000 visitors, resulting in over 250 aircraft orders and a total transaction value of 81.5 billion pounds. However, the disappointing aspect is that none of this 81.5 billion pound transaction belonged to COMAC (Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China).

COMAC, along with its C919 aircraft, participated in the airshow but failed to secure any orders. In contrast, Boeing and Airbus, its competitors, secured multiple deals on the first day of the show. With the C919's repeated cold reception, questions arise: Why has the C919 consistently failed to gain recognition from international airlines? Or, what are the reasons behind the C919's inability to break into the global market?

The Zero Orders at the Farnborough Airshow: C919's Internationalization Dilemma

The Farnborough Airshow is the world's second-largest aviation exhibition, held biennially. This year's show even saw the US showcasing its F-35A fighter jet and B-52 bomber with flight demonstrations, highlighting its strong military aviation capabilities. As for the civil aviation market, Boeing and Airbus continued to dominate, becoming the focal point of the entire exhibition. On the first day, Boeing secured orders for over 70 aircraft, including orders from renowned airlines like Japan Airlines, Luxair, and National Airlines. VietJet Air and Druk Air also placed orders for Airbus aircraft. According to statistics, Boeing accumulated a total of 118 orders during the exhibition, while Airbus, surpassing Boeing, secured 164 aircraft orders, making it the biggest winner of this year's show.

As for COMAC, due to its inability to obtain European and American airworthiness certificates, it couldn't transport a real aircraft to the exhibition and instead showcased 1:20 scale models of the C919, ARJ21, and C929 aircraft. Although it received interest from multiple international airlines, ultimately, it failed to secure a single order.

This is not the first time the C919 has faced a similar situation in the international market. Earlier at the Singapore Airshow and Dubai Airshow, the C919 was showcased as a prominent new product, but it returned empty-handed on both occasions.

C919's Design and Performance: Not a Market Disadvantage

Is it because the C919's design is flawed or its performance falls short of its competitors?

The C919 employs a supercritical wing design, which, compared to traditional wings, enhances the aircraft's cruising efficiency by over 20% and boosts cruising speed by over 100 km/h. When compared at the same thickness, supercritical wings exhibit 8% lower drag than traditional wings, further reducing aircraft structural weight and increasing space and fuel capacity.

In terms of materials, the C919 utilizes aluminum-lithium alloys and composite materials, further reducing aircraft weight and enhancing service life. COMAC has conducted numerous load-bearing structure strength tests and aluminum-lithium alloy welded integral bulkhead structure durability and damage tolerance studies to enhance the aircraft's structural strength while optimizing its performance limits.

Finally, in terms of onboard systems and engines, the C919 incorporates an advanced integrated avionics system and a fully digital fly-by-wire flight control system. Its new LEAP-1C high bypass ratio engine balances robust performance with efficient fuel efficiency.

Overall, compared to its peers the Boeing 737 and A320 the C919 offers a more comfortable ride, enhanced safety, and a more competitive price. The C919 costs $0.99 billion per unit, while the Boeing 737 costs $1.21 billion and the Airbus A320 costs $1.1 billion.

Therefore, the true reason behind the C919's inability to break out of China lies in the issue of airworthiness certification.

The Political Game of Airworthiness Certification: Obstacles to C919's Internationalization

Aircraft airworthiness certification is essentially an exam for the aircraft conducted by regulatory bodies. The current airworthiness challenge faced by the C919 stems from the two major bodies the American FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) and the European EASA (European Union Aviation Safety Agency). Once the C919 obtains airworthiness approval from either of these two authoritative bodies, it will soar and successfully enter the global market, establishing a firm foothold in the world's civil aviation industry. Obtaining airworthiness certification from either the FAA or EASA would enable the C919 to achieve its primary goal of global sales.

However, unfortunately, both the American and European aviation agencies have been hesitant to approve the C919's airworthiness. After all, an additional competitor means a diminished share of profits, reflecting both political differences between China and the West and the inherent market rejection. Therefore, some industry insiders believe that even if the C919 were designed entirely according to Western standards, it would still face difficulties in obtaining certification from these agencies and entering the US and European markets.

This is a major concern for China. To bring its domestically produced passenger aircraft onto the world stage, it must comply with Western regulations. Given the increasingly tense relationship between China and the US in recent years, obtaining EASA airworthiness certification is virtually impossible. Therefore, China has shifted its focus to securing FAA certification.

The Future Prospect of C919: Opportunities and Challenges Coexist

In June this year, China invited European representatives to China to discuss the C919's airworthiness. To demonstrate its commitment, the Civil Aviation Administration of China, along with AirBus Xiamen Airlines, COMAC, and AVIC (Aviation Industry Corporation of China) participated in the meeting. China's representatives were upfront in stating that the C919 has submitted all the required certification documents to the European side, completed all necessary flight tests, and that China has full confidence in ensuring the aircraft's safety for global passengers.

To gain European recognition, China took the unprecedented step of offering four conditions:

1. China will strengthen coordination with Europe on macro-level policies.

2. China will continue to actively participate in cooperation and talent training with Europe.

3. China will cooperate fully in all European civil aviation airworthiness reviews of the C919.

4. China is willing to enhance communication and cooperation with Europe in critical technologies.

European representatives previously stated that the specific airworthiness certification for the C919 would likely take 5-6 years. However, during this meeting, China requested that Europe complete the specific certification within a year. This pressing request clearly carries significant weight.

Only time will tell whether Europe can complete the airworthiness certification next year. However, China cannot depend solely on Europe during this period. After all, China itself is the world's second-largest civil aviation market, offering a vast space for the C919 to thrive.

China's Immense Civil Aviation Market: Domestic Opportunities for C919

In 2023, Airbus conducted a forecast of the global civil aviation market for the next 20 years. By 2042, an estimated 17,000 civil aircraft are expected to require maintenance, updates, and upgrades, presenting a significant market opportunity for major aircraft manufacturers. China's future aircraft market share will gradually surpass North America and Europe to become the world's largest, adding up to 9,000 new aircraft and generating an estimated market share of $1.47 trillion.

Without the emergence of the domestically developed C919, Boeing and Airbus would have dominated this $1.47 trillion market, which is an unacceptable scenario for China. The arrival of the C919 effectively mitigates this situation.

On April 29th, Southern Airlines signed a 100-aircraft order agreement with COMAC. With each C919 priced at $0.99 billion, the total contract value amounted to $9.9 billion. COMAC is obligated to deliver all aircraft in stages by 2031. This marks the third 100-aircraft order received by the C919 so far. Previously, Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and HNA Group have announced their plans to comprehensively introduce the C919 as their primary passenger aircraft model. HNA's subsidiary, Juneyao Airlines, has publicly declared its intention to standardize its fleet with the C919 over the next four years.

China's current civil aviation market exhibits unprecedented potential and dynamism, providing the C919 with the maximum testing ground. However, for China, the domestic market should serve as a lever to pry open the international market for the C919. Only after accumulating sufficient flight experience and achieving thorough validation of its stability in the domestic market can the C919 pave a smoother path for internationalization.

Information Sources:

• People's Daily:

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