Huang Qifan: The new generation of "five major pieces" will become the main battlefield of global industrial competition!

Looking back at economic history, each era's trend has given rise to several durable consumer goods worldwide. From bicycles, sewing machines, radios, to televisions, refrigerators, washing machines, to computers, LCD TVs, mobile phones, etc

Looking back at economic history, each era's trend has given rise to several durable consumer goods worldwide. From bicycles, sewing machines, radios, to televisions, refrigerators, washing machines, to computers, LCD TVs, mobile phones, etc., all have distinct historical backgrounds.

The fourth industrial revolution currently taking place globally is the era of artificial intelligence and smart connectivity. The new generation of core technology - artificial intelligence - will become the commanding point of a new round of industrial transformation, and the "five major components" empowered by artificial intelligence will also enter thousands of households and become the main battlefield of global industrial competition.

Once these products mature, the market size will reach trillions of dollars. Which country or city can develop these industries, and they will be at the forefront of international competition.

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The key to the formation of wisdom

Dialectical materialism believes that the essence of the world is matter, and matter determines consciousness. Before the emergence of human cognition, the objective physical world was formed from the smallest unit quark of matter to atoms, molecules, biological macromolecules, cells, and even ecosystems, and the unprocessed original records of the aforementioned objective physical world were data. After the birth of humanity, information is formed by encoding data from the objective world.

Information, as the key to understanding the world, corresponds to different forms and connotations of information in the real world. The agricultural era corresponds to natural information, the industrial era corresponds to market information, and the The Internet Age corresponds to flow information. Entering the digital age, the corresponding one is the "Five Complete Information":

The ubiquitous information in the entire airspace can be collected from all angles.

Continuous information throughout the entire process can be collected every twofour hours per second on each timestamp.

The information of the entire social scene, the scene information of the activities of the entire society.

The first three types of data information can be calculated and used by artificial intelligence to generate analytical data.

The information resources with full value superposition are not like ordinary resources where there is no west when using the east, and there is no east when using the west; It can be repeatedly used for different coordinate planes, exerting various values, so it is the information of the entire value chain.

The key to the formation of wisdom

Specifically, the generation of the "Five Complete Information" must go through five steps: the first step is digitization, to achieve the "voice of all things"; The second step is networking, to achieve the goal of "connecting all things"; The third step is intelligence, achieving "human-machine dialogue"; The fourth step is to become intelligent and achieve "smart networking". When all four steps mentioned above have been completed, there is a condition to enter the fifth step - digital twin. Through dynamic, continuous, real-time, and bidirectional linkage and interaction between physical entities and digital models, the massive data generated by the entire system is further transformed into "five complete information".

To sum up, the underlying technology, software and hardware infrastructure that supports human society to achieve digitalization, networking, intelligence, and intelligence, and then to achieve digital twins, is a digital platform formed by the organic combination of multiple links of digital technologies such as Big data, cloud computing, mobile Internet, artificial intelligence, and blockchain.

If we compare this digital platform with people, the Internet, mobile Internet and the Internet of Things are like the human nervous system, Big data is like the internal organs, skin and organs of the human body, and cloud computing is equivalent to the backbone of the human body. Without the internet, the five organs and six internal organs cannot collaborate with the backbone; Without cloud computing, the five organs and six organs cannot be suspended; Without Big data, cloud computing is like walking corpses and hollow skeletons. With the nervous system, backbone, viscera, skin and organs, as well as the artificial intelligence equivalent to the soul - human brain and Free nerve ending system, the basic "big wisdom cloud transfer" platform has been formed. And blockchain technology, like more advanced "genetic modification technology," significantly improves brain response speed, bone strength, and limb manipulation flexibility from a fundamental level.

It can be said that any traditional industrial chain combined with these five major information technologies will immediately form a new economic organization mode, thereby posing a disruptive impact on traditional industries. The integration of digital platforms with cities is a smart city, and the integration with industry is smart manufacturing four.0, which is what we call an automated industrial system. When combined with finance, it becomes technology finance.

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Artificial Intelligence Approaches the Singularity Moment

The basic functions and applications of digital platforms are being innovated, promoting the gradual prosperity of human digital civilization. Among them, the development of artificial intelligence plays a key role.

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In more than 70 years of development, AI has evolved into eight key technologies: deep learning, reinforcement learning, pattern recognition, data search, machine vision, knowledge engineering, Natural-language understanding, and brain like interactive decision-making.

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Taking ChatGPT as an example, compared to previous AI intelligence, it has the following major breakthroughs: firstly, it has freed itself from artificial rules and statistics, and exhibits more general intelligence than previous AI models. Secondly, visual abilities have been developed from dialogue, and once equipped with limb tools, they can be competent for basic human work. The third is the ability to autonomously learn new knowledge and make decisions by imitating humans during sample free training.

In the future, as artificial intelligence continues to iterate and is applied in various industry scenarios, it will be able to independently create various forms of content such as text, images, voice, video, code, etc. It will deeply change various industries such as office, e-commerce, entertainment, education, media, and lead artificial intelligence to achieve a leap from perceptual understanding to intelligent creation.

From the perspective of AI iterative upgrading path, the most representative AI such as ChatGPT has been able to realize Natural-language understanding. Many scholars believe that the development of artificial intelligence is approaching the "Singularity" moment.

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Customization, service-oriented, and ecological

Customization, service-oriented, and ecological

The first is customization. The large-scale application of artificial intelligence, without distinguishing between public artificial intelligence and private artificial intelligence, will bring great hidden dangers. Because the premise for the large-scale security application of artificial intelligence technology in the future is likely to be the privatization deployment and personalized customization of the system. Privatization deployment means isolating individual artificial intelligence from public network artificial intelligence. While organizations or individuals can obtain the most comprehensive and industry average level from artificial intelligence systems, they can ensure that their own data is not leaked or exposed, thereby ensuring data security.

The second is service-oriented. In the The Internet Age, technology enterprises make money in free value-added, personalized advertising, subscription system, and so on. In the era of artificial intelligence, an AI company can make money through various means in terms of service and support after selling products.

The third is ecological transformation. The current business model of ChatGPT not only provides free trial and accumulation of customers, but also provides plus function to attract users to use higher and more powerful versions. In the future, if AI products of such technology companies want to further amplify profits, they will inevitably establish a complete artificial intelligence ecosystem, covering all aspects from hardware devices to software applications, algorithm models, and data platforms, forming a complete industrial chain.

In the process of digital upgrading in every link of the industrial chain, the industrial ecology is no longer just about transforming raw materials into products in the traditional sense, but also processing "data" elements, transforming data into a part of products, and expanding the value space of the industrial chain through data products and services.

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The new generation of 'Five Big Items'

Currently, intelligent manufacturing has become a breakthrough point for making China bigger, stronger, and better, as well as creating in China. It is an important support for promoting the transformation of China's new and old driving forces and achieving high-quality development. We need to plan and layout a batch of complete machine products that are in line with the direction of future industrial transformation in a forward-looking manner, which is the high point of the new round of industrial transformation.

Looking back at the Economic history, the tuyere of each era will produce several durable consumer goods worldwide. These products have different forms, functions, and usage scenarios, but their underlying technological foundations are often similar, representing the most advanced productivity in the social and public life scenarios at that time.

For example, the Industrial Revolution was the era of mechanization, and representative consumer goods such as watches, bicycles, sewing machines, radios, cameras, etc; The Second Industrial Revolution is the era of electrification, with cars, air conditioners, televisions, refrigerators, washing machines, etc; The information age since the 1980s has been characterized by desktop computers, laptops, mobile phones, LCD panel televisions, printers, and more.

The new generation of 'Five Big Items'

One is a household robot capable of performing basic human tasks. This type of housekeeping robot has intelligent sensors similar to eyes, ears, nose, and tongue, which can provide high-precision perception of the surroundings; Having a mechanical body, able to move and undertake household chores and other tasks.

The second is a content output robot with logical judgment ability. This type of robot undergoes massive pre training of large models, and its function is not to become a search engine for finding cases, but to make effective judgments based on scientific knowledge, social consensus, and professional knowledge obtained through self learning and extraction, based on specific scenarios. This type of robot does not need to have the form of a robotic arm or foot, and may be a terminal, but can output content and undertake secretarial and assistant work.

The fourth is autonomous clean energy vehicles. With the development of clean energy vehicles, intelligent driving functions centered on artificial intelligence digital technology will gradually penetrate and integrate, connecting real-time transportation tools and infrastructure on the road, responding quickly to complex road conditions and traffic information, improving driving safety and urban traffic efficiency, and greatly expanding the value space of cars as transportation tools.

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Once these products mature, the market size will reach trillions of dollars, and these industries will become key battlefields for international competition. We need to actively carry out forward-looking layout and form a group of globally competitive industrial clusters around these key industries.

In the past fifty or sixty years, the "four major items" and "five major items" were basically invented by Europe, America, and Japan, and then we introduced them for digestion and absorption. So although our production capacity for washing machines, refrigerators, color TVs, laptops, and mobile phones is among the top in the world, in fact, the source innovation can be said to be imported products, all of which are the production capacity formed through introduction, digestion, absorption, and joint venture.

For the "four major items" and "five major items" of future generations, in addition to further opening up, introducing, digesting, and absorbing them, we also need to have our own brand, production line, and newly developed products. Therefore, whether the entire manufacturing industry chain is located in China or around the world, we have the initiative to arrange and layout world-class industrial chain clusters.

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Balancing development and security

Artificial intelligence is not only a major opportunity, but also faces many risks, and it is necessary to balance development and security. Currently, there are also many controversies regarding the development of artificial intelligence. For example, artificial intelligence will replace human jobs, leading to a large number of people losing their jobs; Should robots have self-awareness; Should artificial intelligence have moral values. With the rapid development of artificial intelligence technology, these issues will become increasingly urgent and challenging.

On the one hand, we must remain vigilant about its potential risks and continuously strengthen its supervision and regulation. These risks generally include:

Firstly, artificial intelligence carries the potential risk of gradually losing control;

Secondly, without government intervention, artificial intelligence will greatly increase social inequality and bring about greater class divide;

Thirdly, science has no borders, but artificial intelligence must have borders and must be comprehensively controlled;

Fourthly, artificial intelligence may be exploited by people with ulterior motives, posing huge risks.

On the other hand, we need to further increase investment in artificial intelligence and seize the commanding heights of future technological revolutions. We should be soberly aware that although China has made many achievements in the field of artificial intelligence, there is still a certain gap compared to developed countries such as the United States. Therefore, it is necessary to further increase investment in artificial intelligence, explore and promote the development of artificial intelligence technology from algorithms, models, data, hardware, etc., strengthen the integration of artificial intelligence with other cutting-edge technologies, such as quantum computing, blockchain, biotechnology, etc., and promote cross innovation and development in various fields.

Firstly, strengthen the research and development of artificial intelligence chips and core networks, and break the monopoly of the United States in AI technology;

Secondly, establish a universal big model for China to maintain national security and data security;

Thirdly, increase the introduction of AI talents and support technology platforms to strengthen the research and development of large model ecological platforms.

In short, the development of artificial intelligence is a once-in-a-century technology industry opportunity. China must seize this historic opportunity, increase resource investment, strengthen strategic coordination, lay a solid foundation for competition in the next thirty to fifty years, enhance China's competitiveness and discourse power in the global technology system, and achieve China's technological leap!

(Huang Qifan is the executive vice chairman of the Academic Committee of China National Innovation and Development Strategy Research Association and the former mayor of Chongqing. This article is from Outlook Think Tank.)

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