European Research: Red Light on Earth's Habitability Status, 6 out of 9 Indicators Exceeding Safety Line

Interface News Reporter | Liu ZixiangInterface News Editing|A new study funded by the European Union and Germany states that out of the nine key indicators for measuring the health status of the Earth, six exceed the safe range, and two are developing in a dangerous direction. As described by the research institute, 'The Earth is now like a patient'

Interface News Reporter | Liu Zixiang

Interface News Editing|

A new study funded by the European Union and Germany states that out of the nine key indicators for measuring the health status of the Earth, six exceed the safe range, and two are developing in a dangerous direction. As described by the research institute, 'The Earth is now like a patient'.

Johan Rockstrom, director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in Germany, and others first introduced nine indicators in 2009 to assess the overall health status of the Earth for humans. These indicators are climate change, new physical pollution (including microplastics, nuclear waste, pesticides and other artificial compounds), ozone depletion, air pollution (atmospheric aerosol load), ocean acidification, freshwater change, land system change, biosphere integrity (biodiversity), and biogeochemical flows.

In 2009, three indicators exceeded the safety range. In 2015, researchers updated their report stating that the "red light" indicator had become four. The new study published on Wednesday in the journal Progress in Science is another update in 8 years, with the 'red light' indicator increasing to 6.

The new report states that six indicators, including biodiversity, climate change, new physical pollution, biogeochemical flow, land, and freshwater, have all broken through the safe zone of "human safe operating space". Among them, the first four indicators have the highest risk level; Although the ocean and air are within a safe range, they are developing towards hazardous areas. And ozone is the only indicator that has improved.

The biogeochemical flow reflects the human disturbance of the global elemental cycle. Research considers nitrogen and phosphorus as fundamental components of life, and their global cycles have been significantly altered through agricultural and industrial activities.

Compared to 2015, two new "red light" indicators have been added this time - freshwater health and new physical pollution. One of the co authors of the report, Roxstrom of Germany, stated that the reason is the deterioration of river runoff conditions, as well as more accurate measurement methods and deeper understanding of the problem, which has led to further deterioration of water indicators, transitioning from "barely safe" to "beyond the boundary" category. In addition, benefiting from improvements in measurement methods and data, the pollution level of new entities has also been quantified for the first time in the latest research.

The Stockholm Centre for Resilience stated that crossing these boundaries increases the risk of causing "large-scale sudden or irreversible environmental changes". Another co author of the study, Katherine Richardson of the University of Copenhagen, compared the human body. If we imagine the Earth as a person, the "safety limit" referred to in the study is equivalent to the normal blood pressure standard. "Although blood pressure exceeding 120/80 does not necessarily mean a heart attack, it does increase the risk, so we need to work hard to reduce blood pressure

The report states that these 9 indicators are intertwined and influenced by each other. When the research team used computer simulations, they found that if a single indicator such as climate or biodiversity deteriorates, it will lead to the deterioration of other indicators. At the same time, solving one problem can also help improve other problems.

The report believes that the rational use of land and the protection of forests may be one of the most powerful means for human response to climate change, and encouraging biodiversity may also reduce pollution and improve water health.

The most headache for researchers is these two indicators: climate crisis and biodiversity crisis. Germany's Roxstrom pointed out that the biodiversity crisis is particularly severe, and an important reason is that it is not as concerned as climate change, and it is fundamental to maintaining the integrity of the carbon and water cycles.

The ozone layer is the only indicator that is improving and has returned to a level that is significantly away from hazardous areas. Richardson from the University of Copenhagen stated that ozone depletion once broke through dangerous boundaries, but gradually recovered, mainly due to the global initiatives in the Montreal Protocol adopted in 1987. And this event indicates that other indicators with lower levels of boundary crossing also have the possibility of recovery.

Jonathan Overbeck, director of environmental research at the University of Michigan in the United States, was not involved in the study, but he acknowledged the report, stating that the analysis was "balanced" and that the results looked like a flashing red alarm, but this was not overly alarmist. "People should be worried, but more importantly, there is still hope.

However, there are disagreements among scientists regarding the measurement methods used in European research and the accuracy of the models. Granger Morgan, a professor of environmental engineering at Carnegie Mellon University, said experts have not reached a consensus on where the Earth's limit lies or the extent to which different systems on Earth may interact. But he also admitted, "We are indeed dangerously approaching the limit

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