Every 6 months in the future? Research points out that each person is infected 2-3 times a year or becomes normal!

On June 13, the Beijing Municipal Health Commission released the epidemic situation in the 23rd week. From June 5 to 11, Beijing reported 16 969 cases of 14 Notifiable disease, and 5 deaths

On June 13, the Beijing Municipal Health Commission released the epidemic situation in the 23rd week. From June 5 to 11, Beijing reported 16 969 cases of 14 Notifiable disease, and 5 deaths. The top five diseases in the number of reported cases are: novel coronavirus infection, other infectious diarrhea, influenza, tuberculosis and syphilis. The good news is that the number of reported cases has decreased for two consecutive weeks

Starting from April 24th,The number of reported cases of COVID-19 infection has ranked first in the number of reported cases of Notifiable disease in Beijing for seven consecutive weeks.

From the current research data and popular status, COVID-19 has no seasonality. As human antibody levels decrease, some populations may experience 2-3 infections per year.

An infection cycle may occur every 6 months

On June 7, Nature published a study on COVID-19. Research has pointed out that,An infection cycle may occur every 6 months, and the rolling wave of infections carries the risk of new variants.

Unfortunately, a new reality of this virus is that we are repeatedly infected, "said Ali Mokdad, an epidemiologist at the Institute for Health Indicators and Evaluation at the University of Washington in Seattle. What is worrying is that this virus will produce a new variant that can compete with the current variant and be more severe

Peking University immunologist Cao Yunlong and his team found that the main epidemic strains in December 2022 were the Omicron variants BA. 5 and BF. 7, and the induced antibodies provided about four months of protection against variants such as XBB.

Cao Yunlong introduced in an article in Nature Portfolio, a journal under the magazine Nature,Considering the differences in individual immune backgrounds, such as antibody levels, this wave of infection is expected to last for several months. The peak of infection in the future will gradually become flat, but each cycle will be elongated.This is the trend we are currently seeing in countries such as the United States. Cao Yunlong said that the American people are still infected, but they are no longer infected at the same time. A flatter infection curve can also reduce the pressure on the healthcare system

The infected population is quietly undergoing changes!

Hu Yang, Deputy Chief physician of the Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine Department of Shanghai Lung Hospital, published an article in May 2023, which said that there were still many COVID-19 outpatients in the past two days, and all kinds of cases appeared at the same time. There were young patients with mild diseases, more serious symptoms, but there were also middle-aged and elderly patients with uninfected lungs, and high-risk groups who developed into white lungs. The proportion of the three has recently changed.

Recently, the proportion of mild patients has not increased, and the number of patients with moderate to severe infections has started to increase, and the proportion has also correspondingly increased.Some of them went to fever clinics, and some of them went to the clinics. A CT scan found that COVID-19 had already accounted for a large part of the lungs, and further development might lead to the formation of white lungs.

This group of patients is mostly seen in high-risk groups, and there is also a more special group of patients, who were infected last time and caused pneumonia. If these patients are infected again, the probability of serious consequences is higher than the general population. This is mainly because patients who were infected last time usually have antibodies in their bodies, and this time they may not necessarily be infected. Once they are positive again, it indicates that there are insufficient antibodies in their bodies, their immune system is low, and they are prone to developing white lungs

By the beginning of June, it was obvious that the rising trend of COVID-19 infection cases was not so urgent, and the number of severe cases began to increase. Some of these patients were seriously infected once, while others were gradually aggravated after several days. Finally, they gathered together to see a doctor. It was similar to the experience of the last time. When the number of severe cases increased, most of the people who were positive had already been positive, and the virus epidemic would go downhill.

But this epidemic is difficult to end as quickly as last time. Some people will continue to be infected, which is determined by different immune systems and the rate of antibody decline

Expert prediction: The future trend is "cascade infection"

What is the trend of COVID-19 in the future? According to surging news reports, Professor Lu Hongzhou, the president of the Third People's Hospital of Shenzhen, judged that with the passage of time, COVID-19's virulence will gradually weaken. After more than three years, the virus has been constantly mutating, and the space for increased pathogenicity and infectivity is already very limited. In fact, in the past three years, a new mutated virus has been widely spread almost every few months, but since the emergence of XBB at the end of last year, there has been no major mutation

Repeated infection should not be the norm, as once the immune barrier is established, the virus cannot spread widely, "Lu Hongzhou said. He believes that,The future trend of COVID-19 will be "echelon infection". "The immune protection period has individual differences. People with short immune protection period will be infected first, while others will not be infected at the same time.For example, among 100 individuals, 5% may be re infected after 3-4 months, 10% after 5-6 months, and the previous 5% will no longer be infected.So there will be no clustered cases, and there will be no wave after wave of epidemics in the future.

This article is synthesized from:





2023-06-04

Editor: Lu Yang
Reviewed by: Yang Xiaoming

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