The biggest scam? When we were young, we said we were running out of oil. Why are we digging more and more now?

Author of 'Military Military Secondary Plane': Military MushroomEndless gold and endless oilIf you are a post-80s generation, you must have heard teachers or parents say when you were young that the world's oil is about to run out, and it can last up to 50 years. Humanity must find alternative energy sources as soon as possible

Author of 'Military Military Secondary Plane': Military Mushroom

Endless gold and endless oil

If you are a post-80s generation, you must have heard teachers or parents say when you were young that the world's oil is about to run out, and it can last up to 50 years. Humanity must find alternative energy sources as soon as possible.

If you are a post-90s generation, you must have heard teachers or parents say when you were young that the world's oil is about to run out, and it can last up to 50 years. Humanity must find alternative energy sources.

If you are a '00' generation... wait, you are already 40 years old from the '80' generation,After all these years, is oil about to run out? I don't think so.Not only has it not been depleted, but some experts now say that oil can still be extracted for 200 years.

Can we still mine for 200 years?! Why are we digging more and more? Are experts deceiving people? Is it true? Okay, let's study this question. How many years can oil continue to support human society?

Where does oil come from?

To understand how much oil is left, we must first understand how it is produced.Scientists say... Forget it. At present, scientists do not have a clear statement about the production of oil. Some say that it was formed by Prehistoric life organisms and algae bodies after a long period of compression and heating, while others oppose this theory and believe that it was formed by non organisms. Anyway, up to now, humans do not know where oil comes from. Alternatively, humans have not fully understood how oil emerged.

Is it very complex? Yes, because humans are still unable to produce new oil. Regarding the generation of oil, some people began to study this issue over 200 years ago. Russian chemist Romonosov analyzed and studied this black and viscous oil in 1757, and then proposed a bold hypothesis.

The pioneer of natural science research in Russia, Mikhail Vasiliyevich Romonosov, not only had extensive research in natural sciences, but also was a famous humanistic scholar who wrote "Russian Grammar".

Romonosov believes that the greasy things underground, such as Oil shale, asphalt, carbon, oil and amber, all originated from plants. The leaves of various plants washed away by rainwater and the dead plants pile up together, depositing at the bottom of lakes or rivers and turning into mud. After several thousand years of internal chemical reactions, they eventually become oil and coal.

Does it make sense? Of course it makes sense! This is currently the most mainstream theory of oil production: the organic genesis theory. Modern theory has only slightly advanced Romonosov's viewpoint by two points: firstly, oil is formed not only by plant corpses but also animal corpses. The second is to have a suitable temperature, as too high a temperature can turn it into natural gas.

Not to mention that Romonosov was a genius in Russia, who relatively accurately proposed important theories about oil production over 200 years ago. However, Russia has many geniuses, and 100 years after Romonosov proposed the theory of organic origin, another talented Russian scientist proposed a completely opposite theory on how oil was produced.

Do you remember who discovered the periodic table in their dreams? That's right, Russian chemist Mendeleev. He also became interested in this dark and viscous oil, but as one of Russia's most outstanding chemists, he proposed a completely different set of theories on the production of oil.

The source of all evil for science students, Dmitry Ivanovich Mendeleev, who discovered the periodic table in his dream

Mendeleev carefully analyzed oil and found that the main elements were very simple, namely carbon and hydrogen. Because these two elements are abundant in the crust, Mendeleev also proposed a bold hypothesis in 1876.

Mendeleev believed that there is abundant iron and carbon on Earth. Through the high-temperature process inside the Earth, a large amount of iron carbide may be synthesized below the crust, which in turn reacts with overheated groundwater to generate hydrocarbons. Finally, the generated hydrocarbons rise along crustal cracks and are stored and condensed in appropriate locations to form oil.

Doesn't that make sense? Mendeleev's theory is the future theory of inorganic origin. Of course, in addition to Mendeleev's theory, the inorganic genesis theory also includes the petroleum cosmogenesis theory proposed by Russian scholar Sokolov in 1889, the magma origin theory proposed by Soviet scholar Kudriyantsev in 1951, and so on

Although scholars have proposed a series of theories, unfortunately, neither the organic nor inorganic theories can fully explain the origin of oil. Both theories have their own flaws.

For the theory of organic genesis, although the mainstream academic community now recognizes this theory, it still cannot explain why many oil and gas layers are associated with helium elements. In fact, helium is not enriched in the bodies of both animals and plants. If it is the deposition of oil from animal and plant corpses, it should not be accompanied by a large amount of helium.

In addition, the Cassini interstellar probe launched in 1997, during multiple flybys of Titan (a satellite of Saturn) between 2007 and 2015, analyzed radar scanning data and found that one of the largest seas on this satellite, the "Ligia Sea," was mainly composed of liquid methane.

On Titan, there is no life. Although the hydrocarbon structure in petroleum is more complex than methane, it is possible to naturally synthesize methane, a simple hydrocarbon, in the low gravity environment of Titan. It may not be impossible to synthesize petroleum, a complex hydrocarbon mixture, in high-temperature and high-pressure environments. The natural formation of alkanes indicates the possibility of generating petroleum in inorganic environments.

According to the organic origin, Oil reserves are certainly limited. The oil we are currently extracting is all from the "ancestors" who were buried underground at least 2 million years ago. The "ancestors" are limited, so the oil is bound to be limited. When we run out of oil one day, we will really run out unless we wait another 2 million years for future generations to dig up the oil we have turned into.

But according to inorganic origin, Oil reserves are almost unlimited, because oil can be generated in natural environment. As long as the consumption is less than the amount generated in nature, it can be used indefinitely.

However, the theory of inorganic origin has more unexplainable problems compared to the theory of organic origin. For example, the formation where oil is located usually has sedimentary biological debris. If oil is generated in a natural high-temperature and high-pressure environment, biological debris should not exist simultaneously.

Okay, since scholars cannot perfectly solve the problem of oil production. Let's first agree with the mainstream view of organic genesis that oil in nature is limited. So, here comes the second question,Can our technical conditions extract all the oil in nature?

Why is oil being dug up more and more?

One of the main reasons for the increasing amount of oil being excavated is the advancement of mining technology. Human beings have been extracting oil for nearly 200 years, but the extraction method has never changed fundamentally, which is to find oil and gas reservoirs, then dig a hole in the ground, insert a pipe into it, and pump up the oil.

However, with the support of modern technology, oil extraction has now shifted from primary oil recovery to tertiary oil recovery.

The first oil recovery is usually based on the pressure of the reservoir itself. At this time, the amount of oil that can be extracted depends on the reservoir pressure. When the pressure is high, the oil may even spray out on its own. When the reservoir pressure decreases to a certain extent, the oil cannot be extracted, so the well is abandoned. This is the most primitive method of oil extraction, and the first oil well drilled by Americans in Pennsylvania in 1859 was produced using this method.

However, capitalists quickly discovered that after the production of oil wells was reduced or even shut down, there were actually a large amount of oil and gas resources in the oil layer, but the pressure was too small to pump up. This is not feasible. We must find a way to solve things that hinder making money.

After 1920, technicians found a way to effectively increase the pressure of the oil layer by injecting water into the sandstone layer at the bottom of the oil layer, allowing oil to be further extracted. This is called secondary oil recovery technology. At present, the secondary oil recovery rate can reach 40% of the entire oil layer.

Is that all? Of course not. After 1950, petroleum technicians discovered that after using special chemicals such as polymers, surfactants, and polymer crosslinkers to reduce the surface tension and viscosity of water in oil reservoirs, they could still extract a portion of oil. This led to the development of tertiary oil recovery technology, also known as chemical flooding. Subsequently, tertiary oil recovery technologies such as steam stimulation and microbial flooding emerged one after another.

From primary oil recovery to tertiary oil recovery, human utilization efficiency of oil layers is becoming increasingly high. So, many oil wells that were previously thought to have been depleted have been re extracted with new technologies, greatly improving the utilization efficiency of already proven oil fields. Daqing Oil Field in China has built the world's largest tertiary oil recovery base, and the annual output of tertiary oil recovery has remained above 10 million tons for 20 consecutive years.

In addition to the progress in mining technology, oil exploration technology is also advancing. More and more oil fields have been found, and Oil reserves are also increasing. The world's proven Oil reserves were 682.6 billion barrels in 1980, 1 trillion barrels in 1989, 1.53 trillion barrels in 2009... 1.73 trillion barrels in 2021.

In recent years, China has continuously discovered giant oil fields, and the number of 1.73 trillion barrels is sure to continue to increase

Currently, the world consumes approximately 36 billion barrels of oil annually, which means that if humans no longer discover new oil fields and maintain the current consumption of crude oil, the world's crude oil can actually be extracted for about 50 more years. So, don't panic among the 80s, 90s, and 00s,Because for the current 10, global oil can still be extracted for 50 years.

In addition, in addition to ordinary oil, humans have also discovered and utilized Shale oil, an Unconventional oil. The reserves of Shale oil are much larger than ordinary oil. At present, the proven reserves of Shale oil are 11 trillion to 13 trillion tons, which can be used by humans for thousands of years.

Trump, the former President of the United States, made a public speech in 2020: "The United States is now the world's largest oil and gas producer. Our energy is independent, and we do not need Middle East oil." Trump can say this because the United States has become a major energy exporter relying on Shale oil gas in recent years.

Shale oil is so good? Are there any drawbacks? Yes, that's expensive and difficult to extract.

Shale oil exploitation technology is much more complex than oil, so the exploitation cost is much higher. The United States, the largest producer of Shale oil, costs $30-50 per barrel for Shale oil. Saudi Arabia's oil production cost is only $3 per barrel, and both sides often engage in price wars with each other.

Therefore, the current oil and Shale oil reserves, at least in our generation, should be basically inexhaustible

Can you rest assured of energy security?

Can you rest assured that you can use oil that can last for 50 years and Shale oil that can last for thousands of years? I'm afraid not really.

As an important strategic resource, oil is not only an energy source, but also a political weapon in the hands of relevant countries.Just because a country has enough oil does not mean that every country in the world can receive enough oil. Even when there is sufficient oil supply, it is possible to artificially create supply problems and trigger an oil crisis.

Due to over 80% of Western Europe and Japan's oil dependence on imports, especially Middle Eastern oil, the rise in oil prices has plunged these countries into chaos. In front of the gas station, there was a long queue of cars, which caused a series of economic problems. Oil weapons will soon see results. In November 1973, Europe (excluding the Netherlands) and Japan successively announced their solidarity with the Arabs.

The United States quickly followed suit and sent Kissinger to countries such as Saudi Arabia for "shuttle diplomacy". It was not until March 1974 that Arab countries officially issued a statement, deciding to lift the oil embargo on the United States, restore oil supply, and gradually lift the crisis.

Oil wells ignited in war

At this time, the OPEC was divided internally. Most member countries wanted to raise the oil price, while Saudi Arabia advocated freezing the oil price, or even significantly increasing production alone to depress the price. This internal split has led to the loss of market control capacity of the OPEC.

The final result was that major exporting countries took turns raising oil prices, with the price of a barrel of crude oil rising from $14 to $35. High oil prices have once again caused economic recession in Western industrial countries, with the US GDP alone decreasing by approximately 3%.

The 1990 oil price shock was also due to war. In 1990, Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, triggering the first Gulf War. The oil facilities of the two countries were severely damaged, and the oil production plummeted. In just three months, international oil prices have sharply risen from $14 per barrel to $42 per barrel.

Tanks and trains used to extinguish oil well fires

Because the first Gulf War ended quickly, the oil crisis also ended quickly. Compared with the previous two oil crises, the impact of this oil crisis is not so great. However, the US economy has almost fallen into recession in sync with the war, dragging down global economic growth and directly triggering a global economic crisis. In 1991 and 1992, the Western economy grew by only 0.7% and 1.5% respectively.

In fact, a careful analysis of the three oil crises will reveal a core element,The outbreak of the oil crisis is closely related to war.As long as oil producing countries engage in war or have the willingness to influence the direction of war, oil will become a weapon of war that affects the economy.

In 2022, the Russia-Ukraine conflict broke out, and this Primary energy became a weapon again. Although there was no oil crisis, there was also a natural gas crisis as an energy source. In the international market, the price of natural gas has reached an unprecedented $2000 per cubic meter for a period of time.

So, although theoretically humans can still rely on oil as energy for a considerable period of time in the future. However,The unpredictable factors of war will greatly affect the supply of fossil fuels such as oil and natural gasWe still need to actively maintain our research on new energy technologies and replace our reliance on non renewable fossil fuels such as oil with independently controllable green energy, in order to better ensure national security.

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