Karamay, will it become the second jade gate?

More than one friend once asked me the same question, how many years can Karamay's oil be exploited?Oil is a non renewable resource, and it will be exhausted one day. If the oil is exhausted, will Karamay become an empty city like Yumen?Is everyone's concern unnecessary?Let's first take a look at how Yumen has gone from glory to decline step by step

More than one friend once asked me the same question, how many years can Karamay's oil be exploited?

Oil is a non renewable resource, and it will be exhausted one day. If the oil is exhausted, will Karamay become an empty city like Yumen?

Is everyone's concern unnecessary?

Let's first take a look at how Yumen has gone from glory to decline step by step.

Yumen was once hailed as the "cradle of China's petroleum industry". Created 75 "firsts" in China's petroleum industry, including the first oil well, the first oil field, and the first petrochemical base.

Yumen was once one of the important economic pillars of Gansu Province and a banner of China's petroleum industry. Yumen is still the hometown of the "Iron Man" and an important source of the spirit of the "Iron Man" and the spirit of petroleum.

Yumen Oilfield not only provides a large amount of petroleum resources to the country, but also shoulders the historical responsibility of "three major four exports" (universities, large experimental fields, and large research institutes, producing products, experience, talents, and technology). It has delivered more than 100000 people and more than 4000 sets of equipment to more than 50 oil fields and refining enterprises nationwide, making historic contributions to the development of China's petroleum and petrochemical industry.

At the beginning of the 21st century, like all resource-based cities, Yumen inevitably encountered the problem of resource depletion, and faced a desperate development situation. Under helplessness, Yumen could only make a difficult choice.

In 2004, the living base of Yumen Oilfield was relocated, with only production and operation areas set up in the urban area, while the living area was relocated to Jiuquan, a hundred kilometers away.

In 2006, the Yumen Municipal Government relocated to the Yumen Town New Area, which is more than 70 kilometers west of the city center.

Nowadays, the population of the old urban area of Yumen has sharply decreased from 200000 at its peak to 20000, and the prosperous and bustling scene of the past is no longer present.

Karamay and Yumen are typical resource-based cities, both of which are born and prospered by oil. Will Karamay repeat its mistakes in the story of Yumen?

Now let's take a look at the development status of Karamay Oilfield. The well-known Karamay Oilfield is actually a subsidiary of PetroChina's Xinjiang Oilfield Company, headquartered in Karamay City.

The exploration field of Xinjiang Oilfield Company is dominated by the the Junggar Basin in Xinjiang. The main oil area is in the Baili oil area around Karamay from Hongqian to Wuerhe. There are oil production plants such as No. 1 Oil Production Plant, No. 2 Oil Production Plant, No. 1 Gas Production Plant (the original No. 3 Oil Production Plant), Hongshan Company, Xingang Company, Heiyoushan Company, Heavy Oil Company, Baikouquan Oil Production Plant, Fengcheng Oilfield Operation Area, etc, Luliang operation area and Shixi operation area located in the hinterland of Gurbantunggut Desert in the Junggar Basin, as well as Zhundong oil production plant and Jiqing oil field operation area located in eastern Xinjiang.

Xinjiang Oilfield Company is the first large-scale oil field in western China with a capacity of 10 million tons. As of the end of 2022, it has produced a total of 430 million tons of crude oil and 99.18 billion cubic meters of natural gas. The crude oil production has been steadily producing over ten million tons for 20 consecutive years, making it the oil field with the fastest growth rate, the largest growth rate, and the highest overproduction in China in the past 5 years.

The the Junggar Basin is one of the three major basins in China with a total onshore oil and gas resources of more than 10 billion tons. It is predicted that the total oil resources are 8.6 billion tons, and the total natural gas resources are 2.1 trillion cubic meters. The oil and gas resources are very rich.

As of November 2020, the proven oil reserves in the the Junggar Basin have reached 3.15 billion tons, and the proven natural gas reserves have reached 171.9 billion cubic meters. At present, the recovery rate of most conventional oil fields in China is between 20% and 30%. So, the oil reserves that Xinjiang oilfield can extract are about 1 billion tons.

According to the current technological level, the remaining proven reserves are around 500 million tons. According to the production rate of 15 million tons of crude oil per year in the future, it is still enough to extract for more than 30 years.

If the technological level is developed in the future, the recovery rate may increase to 50% or even higher, and the proven reserves of this part will increase production by at least 600 million tons, which can be extracted for another 40 years.

This adds up to 70 years of mining, and there will definitely be additional proven reserves within these 70 years, so mining for another 100 years is not a problem.

In recent years, Xinjiang Oilfield Company has received frequent reports of success, successively discovering two 1 billion ton oil fields, Mahu and Jimusar. Therefore, the the Junggar Basin is still in the early and middle stages of exploration, and the comprehensive degree of oil and gas exploration is only 26.6%, with huge development potential.

According to the plan of PetroChina Xinjiang Oilfield Company, the crude oil production is expected to reach 15.8 million tons and the oil and gas equivalent will reach 18 million tons in 2025, striving to exceed 20 million tons.

So, friends, the development momentum of Xinjiang Oilfield is strong and will usher in a better future; Karamay's future will also be more brilliant.

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