#Headlines on current events and hot topics#The restrictions imposed by the United States on China's semiconductor industry have become increasingly severe.On June 30, the Dutch government issued the Regulations on Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment, which increased the control on the export of China's Stepper

#Headlines on current events and hot topics#

The restrictions imposed by the United States on China's semiconductor industry have become increasingly severe.

On June 30, the Dutch government issued the Regulations on Advanced Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment, which increased the control on the export of China's Stepper.

ASML, a Dutch Stepper giant, also announced that the export of the most advanced immersion DUV Stepper needs to be approved by the Dutch government.

Some people may have questions here:

Didn't the Dutch Stepper be banned from selling to China more than two years ago? Why is there another round of lockdown?

It should be pointed out here that,At the beginning, the Netherlands was forced by the United States to ban the sale of Stepper to China, which refers to the EUV Stepper that can produce the most advanced process chips below 14nm.

But now, some advanced immersive DUV Stepper machines are also limited for the production of low-end chips above 14nm.

In other words, it is not enough to restrict the export of high-end EUV Stepper from the Netherlands to China. The United States also needs to completely block the low-end Stepper field and comprehensively curb the development of China's Semiconductor industry.

In the face of the United States' pursuit of the development of China's Semiconductor industry, China's chip industry must adhere to independent research and development and blaze a new path if it wants to catch up and even overtake at corners.

The Netherlands was forced to restrict the export of Stepper to China

For ASML in the Netherlands, there is no reason to restrict the export of Stepper to China from its own interests.

In 2019, China's demand for Stepper has accounted for nearly 40% of the global market.

In addition, the domestic demand for Stepper has continued to grow in recent years. Some professionals predict that the demand for Stepper in China will account for 50% of the global market by the end of this year.

For a company like ASML that has almost formed a monopoly, it is obviously impossible to give up on a huge market that accounts for half of its business volume.

In fact, in October 2022, the United States released the strongest semiconductor technology regulation against China, and the Netherlands initially chose not to follow.

The Minister of Foreign Trade of the Netherlands, Schreinemacher, stated:

The Netherlands will not copy the measures of the United States (exporting to China) one by one

ASML's CEO Peter Winning openly questioned the US's dual standard approach:
It seems contradictory that American chip manufacturers can sell the most advanced chips to China, but ASML can only sell older chip manufacturing equipment to China

Unfortunately, even though ASML is the only Stepper giant in the world, the localization rate of key parts for producing Stepper is not so high. Take EUV Stepper as an example, only about 45% of the parts are produced in the Netherlands, and the rest 55% are imported by the United States and its allies, Japan and Germany.

Therefore, if the Netherlands does not agree to restrict its export to China, it will be "choked" by the United States, so there is no way to disagree.

Although ASML is able to produce the world's top Stepper equipment, and China has the world's largest market share, because the United States interferes, the two cannot reach a deal to achieve a win-win situation.

How is China's Stepper industry developing?

The first thing to acknowledge is that,The development of China's Stepper industry is far from the top in the world, and even to achieve self-sufficiency, there is still a long way to go.

For example, the first difficulty in Stepper manufacturing is the light source of the machine.

Currently, only Cymer from the United States possesses mature manufacturing technology globally, and even ASML needs to purchase and book from it.

At present, the first engineering prototype of EUV light source in China has been officially launched, but although it has been successfully developed, it has just laid the foundation for mass production. There is still a certain gap between this technology and the production of supporting Stepper machines.

Taking photoresist as an example, photoresist is one of the core raw materials for Stepper production and chip production, and is mainly used as anti-corrosion coating material.

At present, Japan is far ahead in the field of high-end photoresist, occupying 75% of the global market and having absolute say in the high-end photoresist market.

At present, China's photoresist development is still in its infancy. Take ArF photoresist as an example. This photoresist is used to make 14nm to 130nm Stepper and chips. China's domestic self-sufficiency rate of ArF photoresist is only 1%, and it needs to be imported from Japan.

Therefore, although China's Semiconductor industry has developed rapidly and has been making efforts in the field of Stepper manufacturing and R&D, it is quite difficult to break through this truly sophisticated technology field.

In particular, in order to limit the development of China's Semiconductor industry, the United States has done everything it can. In addition to technology and key equipment, even in the field of materials, it is also chasing after each other, further increasing the difficulty of China's Stepper R&D and manufacturing.

The Stepper industry has a long way to go in the future.

China's chip industry is leading a new path

In fact, the development path in the field of new energy vehicles in China is similar,If the domestic Stepper wants to really break through the western restrictions, it is more important to focus on the layout of the future direction and achieve overtaking at corners.

Taking the automotive industry as an example, the automotive manufacturing industry is known as the pearl of industry and one of the industries that can serve as a pillar of the national economy.

However, in the era of traditional fuel vehicles, due to the backward industrial development in China, the first mover advantage was lost, leading to a crushing situation for domestic cars by foreign cars.

Consumers would rather spend double or even several times the premium to purchase joint venture cars than purchase relatively low-end domestic cars. Domestic car companies can only barely maintain their operations due to outdated technology and meager profits.

However, as the country increases its support for the new energy vehicle industry, the domestic new energy vehicle industry has flourished, and a group of domestic car companies have ushered in a new life.

Last year, China's production and sales of new energy vehicles ranked first in the world for 8 consecutive years. Among the top 10 enterprises with installed capacity of power batteries, China occupied 6 seats, truly achieving overtaking on curves in the automotive industry.

Now the Stepper industry is facing a similar situation. China not only lacks the first mover advantage, but also faces the restrictions of western countries.

In addition, to produce a high-end EUV Stepper, more than 100000 parts are needed, and more than 5000 enterprises around the world cooperate. The difficulty of technology research and development can be imagined.

It is not easy to build a complete Stepper industry chain in China in a short time.

Therefore, in addition to continuing to make breakthroughs in the R&D and manufacturing of domestic Stepper, it is also necessary to make layout based on the future direction, and make continuous R&D investment around the materials, devices and process direction of the next generation transistor, so as to form countermeasures.

If you want to bypass the path of Stepper, you must keep trying. For example, China's production lines of super-resolution Stepper, quantum chip, and photonic chip are all in the planning process, and the first domestic production line of multi material photonic chip will be completed this year.

In a word, in the face of western countries' blockade of China's Semiconductor industry, in addition to down-to-earth efforts and continued investment in Stepper R&D and manufacturing, we should also "look up to the stars", explore new ways from another direction, and plan for the future.

Write at the end:

From another perspective, the restriction of China's chip industry research and development by the United States is not entirely a bad thing.

This is tantamount to directly helping us break our way, forcing us to devote ourselves to independent research and development, and achieving a breakthrough in the Stepper industry as soon as possible.

At the beginning, the president of ASML said that even China could not build a Stepper machine with drawings.

Today, China is constantly making efforts in the Stepper industry, and has made certain achievements. Facts will prove that China is not afraid of various restrictions of adding weights layer by layer. It is only a matter of time before Stepper localization.

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