What signals does the internet layoff wave send?
Everyone knows about Alibaba's layoffs.A friend in the background asked me what to do after being laid off, but I can't say
Everyone knows about Alibaba's layoffs.
A friend in the background asked me what to do after being laid off, but I can't say.
There's nothing we can do. In principle, we can only endure until the situation improves.
What is the biggest problem now? In the past, the biggest challenge was to waste time, and it was always possible to endure. However, in the current situation, it may not be possible to endure.
What we are fighting for now is not who has high assets, but who has low liabilities.
01
There used to be a saying on the internet that goes like this.
The monthly salary of outsiders is 3W, which cannot catch up with the monthly salary of locals of 1W.
Why?
Because locals have assets and houses, their monthly salary of 1W can actually be spent on themselves, but the 3W of outsiders is not.
Outlander's 3W needs to rent a house, buy a house, and bear the mortgage, scattered and scattered. Perhaps you look at the monthly salary of 3W, and he throws away the mortgage and gets around 1W yuan.
But it should be noted that his acquisition of 1W is also different from that of locals.
Local people who have acquired 10000 yuan dare to spend and are not afraid of unemployment, because houses are displayed here. Even if they are truly unemployed, as long as they dare to carry forward the spirit of pursuing morality, they can live at a low cost.
Electricity can be dispensed with, water can be used less, rice can be made by oneself, and this set of three connected units actually only has a house. The monthly living cost in big cities is actually quite low.
But not for outsiders, their monthly salary of 3W may not be stable.
He may be laid off, or his salary may be reduced. The 1W he has received must be saved for emergencies, and he cannot feel secure until he pays off his mortgage.
At this point, the cash flow of this outsider is negative.
So you will see a phenomenon that many high-income people in big cities now have tight living conditions.
They live in a large house of about 200 square meters, their children attend noble elementary schools, and buy BBAs worth hundreds of thousands of yuan, but these things are all in debt.
The good news is that they have a lot of assets.
The bad news is that their liabilities are almost the same as their assets.
This financial situation has not been a problem in the past two decades, after all, the economy is growing, everyone's income is improving, and expectations are good. In this situation, having too much debt is actually a good thing, because the growth and inflation brought by time will erase all debts.
But not now.
In the current situation, debt will crush people to death, because in the face of high debt, you need to constantly work to repay debt. If your cash flow breaks now, debt will in turn erode all your past savings.
At this time, the amount of deposit is not important.
You don't have any debt, and a deposit of around 100000 yuan is enough. As long as you are willing to lower your living standards, it can ensure that a person can live a stress-free life in any city in China for a few years.
No matter how bad it is, you have no debt, no savings, and not much pressure. You work hours and hours to do something, although you can't think about wealth and wealth, living is still not difficult.
But having debt is not enough.
Thirty years of housing loans are weighing on people's heads, and you need cash flow every month to repay your debts. Once this pressure is on, life becomes completely unbearable.
In the end, one can only die.
02
Although I am studying economics, I rarely tell you a little about economic terms.
For this phenomenon, there is a concept that is very accurate.
That is, a decline in the balance sheet.
The behavioral goals of micro themes have shifted from pursuing "profit maximization" under normal circumstances to pursuing "debt minimization", to a sustained total demand gap and economic downward pressure.
Simply put, what are everyone doing now?
Pay off debts, pay off debts, keep paying off debts.
For example, early repayment of a loan. A few years ago, when people bought a house, the interest rate was given at 6%. Now, no matter what you think, you have to quickly borrow money to repay this money.
Not only because this mortgage is not cheap, but also because of what?
My current income may still be able to pay off my mortgage, but I cannot guarantee that my future income will still be able to pay off my mortgage. In order to ensure that this asset is not taken back in the long term, I need to straighten out my own balance sheet.
I will desperately preserve my existing assets.
More and more people are starting to hold this view now.
Not one or two, but everyone, let alone waiting for layoffs to consider this matter.
It would be too late to consider this matter again at that time.
03
What is the current situation?
People who have already lost their jobs are stuck in a quagmire and need to quickly find a new job to continue their cash flow. They have already encountered difficulties in the short term.
People who are still employed have no problem, but they dare not spend it.
Because people are all common animals, even if I have a decent income now, when I see the situation of people around me, do you think I dare to spend it now?
I dare not.
Because I cannot guarantee that I will not encounter the same situation as them.
I can only shrink my clothes and diet, and save my money.
This is the biggest problem now.
Is the Internet layoff wave a big problem?
It doesn't seem that big, because for those internet giants, they have laid off some people and will hire another group of people in order to reduce costs and improve efficiency.
But it's actually quite large.
Because the signal conveyed is more terrifying than this direct action of firing people.
Just like a bank run.
It's not scary for a bank to have no money, because if it doesn't have any more money, it can't even take out the millions of depositors in a day. By pooling and borrowing, it can always be maintained.
But unfortunately, if this bank lets all depositors know that they have no money, it's over.
Savers will rush to withdraw all this money for safety reasons.
This is the situation now.
People have never been afraid of internet layoffs, they have always been afraid of the turmoil caused by internet layoffs.
To put it bluntly, I am not afraid of others being laid off, I am afraid of myself being laid off.
For my sense of security not to be laid off, I'm sorry, I won't spend this money anymore.
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